THE PAINTED PIG'S WEEKEND WARRIORS APRIL 10/11-2010

THE PIG NOTES THAT FRIDAYS MOVE BY AAA.V WAS A PRECURSER TO SOMESORT OF NEWS HAPPENING. RUMOURS ABOUND ABOUT JOINT VENTURE PARTNERS, PROPERTIES, BUYOUTS ETC. SO THE PIG FIGURES WITH ANY KIND OF DECENT DRILLING RESULTS .70 LEVEL IS AVAILABLE FOR SETTLEMENT. ANOTHER PICK WAS SKE.V ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PIG HAD A HUNCH, THE SCANNER DID TOO AND CHART BORE OUT THE FINDINGS, AND IT STARTED TO MOVE THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE PIGS PLEASED THAT THESE SIGNALS FOR MOVES  BECOME MORE FREQUENT, MORE READABLE AND MORE PROFITABLE. IT MEANS WE ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. IT MEANS WE CAN MAKE SOME MONEY AT THIS GAME AND REDUCE SOME OF THE RISK. AS ALWAYS, ACCUMULATION, PATIENCE, AND THEN PROFIT ARE THE STEPS WE TAKE. THE PIG HOPES YOUR HAVING A GREAT WEEKEND, LETS GET ON WITH THE BISINESS AT HAND.

ON WITH THE SHOW....

CHU.V...AS THE INSIDE MONEY GOES. THE SCANNER PICKED UP THE CHANGE IN SENTIMENT, MOVING AVERAGE AND NET CAPITAL VECTORS WITH A VENGEANCE.

LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE PREPARING FOR NEWS AND BY THE LOOKS OF IT, IT MAY BE GOOD.

EGM.V...THE PIGS NOT SURE OF THE STORY, BUT THIS IS THE SECOND TIME IN A SHORT SPAN THAT ITS SHOWN UP HIGH ON THE SCAN LIST. IT MUST BE A PRETTY GOOD STORY. THIS PIGGY SCANNED VERY WELL IN 8 OF 10 AREAS. ACCUMULATION ALSO EVIDENT. SOME KEY SIGNS HERE SAYS THE PIG. WATCH FOR CONTINUED LIQUIDITY AND THEN MAKE YOUR MOVE, DON'T PAY TOO MUCH.

MNR.T....NO STORY FOR THE PIG. BUT HUGE ACCUMULATION AND CHANGE IN SENTIMENTS, MOVING AVERAGES, DISTRIBUTION AND UPTURN IN NET CAPITAL INFLOWS. MORE NEWS ? SOMETHING....THE PIG SAYS WATCH VOLUME INCREASES AND KEEP AN EYE TO ACCUMULATION NUMBERS. SOMEONES BUYING IT AND FOR SOME REASON.

LRM.T...SCANNER ODDITY OF THE WEEKEND.  THE PIGS NOT SURE HOW TO READ THE NUMBERS. BUT IT HAS SOME INTERESTING READINGS IS FOR SURE. WATCH IT AND WAIT AND SEE IF IT COMES BACK AND SHOWS SOME STEADY LIQUIDITY......ODD.....REALLY ODD..........

Pan American Lithium Corp. Featured as Stock Pick by KonLin Investment Letter

Posted by mincho2008


Saturday, 10 April 2010


Pan American Lithium Corp. (OTCBB:PALTF)(TSX VENTURE:PL)(www.panamericanlithium.com), a junior lithium exploration company based in Tucson, AZ, announced today that it is featured as a special stock pick in the April issue of the KonLin Letter, an independent New York-based investment newsletter (www.konlinletter.com) published by KonLin Research & Analysis. The investment letter cited the junior company as having an existing portfolio of rights in nine salars (brine lake and dry lake beds) in region III of Chile and the option to acquire an interest in a geothermal brine project in Mexico.






The KonLin Letter recognized the biggest single use of lithium is rechargeable lithium batteries for cell phones, cordless tools, laptops, MP3 players and video cameras. This segment represents about 30% of all lithium demand in the world and is growing at a 25% rate per year. The Konlin Letter also highlighted the following about PALTF, stating the ultimate target of 4-5:






"Most exciting, PALTF possesses advanced projects with near-term production potential in stable mining-friendly jurisdictions. Also, a large industrialized investor has signed a Letter of Intent in January to invest $5 million in PALTF and is winding down their technical due diligence."


"PALTF's astute management team, with President/CEO Andrew Brodkey (a mining engineer and mining lawyer) at the helm. As a result of strategic acquisitions (he) has positioned PALTF as a lithium junior with quality assets among the lowest production costs, allowing them to be first into market capturing the next wave in mineral exploration lithium."


"PALTF's Mexican partners, who own the private company Escondidas, entered into a joint venture with CPI Internacional, the owners of the brine concessions, to commercialize the geothermal brines. After successful due diligence, PALTF plans to purchase 76% or controlling interest in Escondidas, giving them an indirect 25% of the project. The strategic partnership puts PALTF light years ahead of most of its competitors since all the intense exploration and drilling work has been completed."


"One of PALTF's best Chilean salars is Laguna Verde, which can be pretty easy to pump and extract brines from. This gives PALTF a tremendous advantage over their competitors, as the Chilean projects could be the lowest product cost among other sources of Li and are going to be the first in getting the resource estimates, taking them to feasibility and ultimate production!"


The KonLin Letter also noted "PALTF will probably be the first to market geothermal brines in Mexico and nine salars in Chile with the goal of producing up to 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate a year."


On Behalf of the Board,






PAN AMERICAN LITHIUM CORP.






Andrew A. Brodkey, President and CEO




Ms Patricia Mohr economist of Scotiabank predicted that Canadian iron ore producers will enjoy huge price gains in 2010, judging from annual contract negotiations now underway between Australian and Brazilian miners and steel makers in Asia and Europe.







Ms Mohr forecast in an analysis published that prices will be driven up by recovering steel production and iron ore demand in the G7 as well as steel mill capacity in China. Meanwhile, Ms Mohr concurs with other metal analysts who are predicting that annual benchmark prices for iron ore may shift to flexible arrangements, more closely aligned with spot prices.






Ms Mohr said that iron ore spot prices from India are 122% above the annual contract price for Hamersley Fines from Australia delivered to northern China at USD 69.62, which she suggested points to a very large increase in annual contract prices, once negotiations are concluded for the 2010 fiscal year.






In the meantime, given the wide gap between spot and contract prices, Vale is reporting shifting its sales to more flexible arrangements linked to spot prices. BHP Billiton also favors more flexible pricing.






Ms Mohr observed that contract prices for Teck Resources' premium grade hard coking coal will increase from USD 128 per tonne to USD 200 for April to June quarter. Nippon Steel, JFE Steel Corporation, Sumitomo and others agreed to the increase, following the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance settlement in Australia at the same price.






Mr Mohr's research found LME copper prices remain exceptionally lucrative, yielding 63% profit margin over full breakeven costs including depreciation and interest expense. Copper demand is firm in the power sector and in electrical goods. He observed that LME inventories have also recently inched down.






She said that while the earthquake in Chile had only a limited impact on Chilean copper production, warranted material was taken from LME warehouses as a precaution against the possibility of delayed Chinese shipments. Meanwhile, there is little sign of improving US copper demand, given a weak construction sector, though we remain hopeful that the industrial turnaround will gradually lift consumption.






Meanwhile, North American potash sales surged to the highest levels in 15 years in January and remain relatively high. Canada's largest potash producer expects record North American sales in Q1 2010 after farmers deferred potash application in 2009.






(Sourced from www.proactiveinvestors.com)

THE PIGS FRIDAY MORNING FRYERS

THE PIG SAYS THE WEATHER OUTSIDE IS FRIGHTFUL.  INTERESTING NEWS RELEASED ON A LONG TERM PIG FAVORITE V.GXS TONIGHT. A SASKATCHEWAN COAL PLAY, THE COMPANY CONTINUES TO INCREASE VALUE TO ITS PROPERTIES AND TONIGHTS NEWS WAS NO HINDRANCE TO THE PROGRESS, TO BE SURE. NOW IF V.AAA COULD GET SOME OF THE SAME KIND OF RESULTS, AND A PROPER PROMO PUSH IS EXERTED, THOSE MULTI DOLLAR VALUES MAY FINALLY START TO APPEAR. EITHER WAY ITS GOING TO BE BOUGHT OUT BY SOMEONE AND FOR MUCH HIGHER LEVELS THAN IT CURRENTLY TRADES.

ON WITH THE SHOW.....

HSX.V...NOT SURE WHAT THE REAL STORY IS BUT TONIGHT THIS PIGGY SCANNED VERY WELL. COMPOSITE MOVING AVERAGES, MOMENTUM AND NET CAPITAL VECTORS ALL POINTING "UP". NOT SURE WHAT THE FIRE BEHIND THE SMOKE IS BUT THE PIG THINKS THERE IS SOMETHING UP. MORE LIQUIDITY AND HE MIGHT BE BUYING.

NIS.V....NO CLEAR STORY ON THIS PIGGY EITHER. JUST SOME DECENT NUMBERS OUT OF THE SCANNER TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST OF WHICH WAS THE SENTIMENT TURNAROUND AND THE NET CAPITAL FLOW REVERSAL VECTORS. DOES SOMEONE KNOW ? THE PIG SAYS A FEW MORE TRADING DAYS AND WE WILL KNOW. WATCH CLOSE, FOR LIQUIDITY AND PRICE INCREMENTS. IF LIQUIDITY CONTINUES AND THE PRICE IS STABLE, YOU KNOW ACCUMULATION IS UNDERWAY.

JRN.V...AGAIN NO CONFIRMED STORY, JUST RUMOUR. THE SCANNER KICKED IT UP A NOTCH OR TWO, AFTER SEVERAL DAYS IN THE TOP 25 SCANS. LOOKS LIKE THE OLD "SOMEONE KNOWS" CAPER. THE PIG SAYS HE LIKES ALMOST THE BEST OF THE THREE TONIGHT. FOR THE TRADERS, SEE WHAT THE OPEN IS AND THE LIQUIDITY DEMAND, AND THEN MAYBE JUMP FOR A FEW. THE NUMBERS ARE THERE, THE PRICE AND POSSIBLY A SHORT TERM DOUBLE. DON'T PAY TOO MUCH BUT CONSIDER A NIBBLE. 

Small caps on a roll

Bob Tattersall


07:58 EST Thursday, Apr 08, 2010


Investors in Canadian small cap stocks have clearly decided that there will be no double-dip recession. After an explosive 75 per cent rally in 2009 which took them 40 percentage points ahead of the S&P/TSX Composite, Canadian small caps extended the gain during the first quarter of 2010. According to the BMO Capital Markets Small Cap Index, the sector was up 7.4 per cent in the quarter, well ahead of the 3.1 per cent return reported by the S&P/TSX Composite Index of big cap stocks. The “unweighted” small cap index was up a little more at 8.5 per cent, which tells us that investor enthusiasm has extended down into the smaller names within the sector, many of which would be viewed as microcap by institutional investors.


As a matter of interest, a stock in Canada currently qualifies as small cap if the market capitalization is below $1.5-billion. Companies approaching the top end of that range at present are primarily resource stocks such as Nuvista Energy and FNX Mining, although more familiar names a little above $1-billion include Linamar Corporation, Canada Bread and Laurentian Bank.  Unlike last year, when a large part of the small cap surge came from the materials sector, the first quarter of 2010 saw a more even distribution of returns from all sectors. Consumer, energy, interest sensitive and resource stocks as a group delivered returns in the 7-9 per cent range, while the laggard from last year, industrials, came through on top with a gain of 9.9 per cent for the quarter. This is something of a surprise as a strong Canadian dollar historically has been a headwind for Canadian industrial small caps as they face increasing import competition.  Also unlike last year, there was very little difference in the first quarter returns from the “blended” index quoted above which includes income trusts, and the “equity only” version of the index. This no doubt reflects the diminishing role played by income trusts in the capital markets and raises the question as whether or not there will even be two versions of the index next year.


We shouldn’t spend too much time congratulating Canadian small cap investors for their courage in getting back into the market, because it appears to be a global phenomenon. The MSCI World Index, which is heavily oriented toward large cap multinationals, was up 3.4 per cent (in US dollar terms) during the quarter, while the small cap version of the same index was up 7.7 per cent. Similarly, in the United States market, the big cap Standard & Poors 500 Index was up 5.4 per cent, well behind the 8.9 per cent gain from the small cap Russell 2000 Index. The relative outperformance of small cap stocks is inexorably shrinking the valuation discount which was as deep as 40 per cent this time last year. In round numbers, we can say that Canadian small caps still trade at a 10 per cent discount in terms of Price-Earnings multiples, a 20 per cent discount in terms of Price to Book ratios and a 30 per cent discount in terms of Price to Sales ratios. With over a thousand small caps stocks to choose from on the main board of the TSX and many more on the venture exchange, it should still be possible to create a diversified portfolio of attractive candidates. Last quarter, I suggested that if individual investors didn’t see value in the market in a slow growth environment, then corporate acquisitors might very well step up to the plate. This continues to be the case and during the quarter Quadra Mining and FNX Mining were prime examples of small cap companies bulking up through a proposed merger.




On the subject of small cap value, I recently attended a session on behavioral finance hosted by the Toronto CFA Society. During the course of his presentation, the speaker threw out the statistic that small cap value stocks outperformed the index over 90 per cent of the time according to his study of a series of overlapping 20 year periods. This isn’t supposed to happen if the market is efficient as it would be easy to capture this excess return, so, not surprisingly, he had a behavioral explanation: In order for a stock to become small cap and value, the recent investor experience has to be disappointing if not downright disastrous. As a result, these tend to be low-expectation stocks where even the absence of bad news can be construed as good news and a reason for the stock price to recover. He did concede that you won’t be the centre of attention at a cocktail party with your collection of low-expectation stocks, but that’s not the purpose of investing.




Greece staggers deeper into crisis


Jeremy Torobin

20:15 EST Thursday, Apr 08, 2010





Ottawa — Greece is sinking deeper by the day into what has become an unprecedented crisis for Europe's young currency union, its troubles spreading from the government to the financial sector and pushing the country ever closer to seeking emergency aid. The repeated pounding by international investors, which illustrates how a promised support package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund has failed to calm markets, threatens to force Greece to reluctantly accept outside help to meet its funding needs and may add to fears about unmanageable government debt loads elsewhere in Europe and around the world.

The Greek tragedy roiling markets is casting a cloud over the global recovery and analysts say it may only be averted by Europe's leaders ceding responsibility for resolving the crisis to the IMF. Such a move would probably do more to calm investors, because of the IMF's track record in turning troubled economies around. But it is a politically sensitive step European and Greek officials have been at pains to avoid. European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet tried to calm the waters Thursday, succeeding somewhat. He asserted that Greece would not default on its debt and that Prime Minister George Papandreou's deficit-cutting plan would be implemented “rigorously.”

Still, the debt-burdened country needs to borrow about $15.5-billion by the end of next month, and the premium investors are demanding to hold Greek 10-year bonds spiked Thursday to the steepest in the history of the euro. Worse, what has so far largely been a government-centred debt issue spread to the country's major banks, their stocks falling sharply after a government announcement on Wednesday that Greek banks will tap funds remaining in a stimulus program to boost their capital levels amid fears they're losing access to financing. The government's funding problems would only heighten if Greece's banks lost access to funding from the markets and run short of the collateral they would need for a ECB loan.
“Another day, another blowout in Greek bond spreads,” David Watt, a currency strategist at RBC Dominion Securities Inc. in Toronto, wrote in a note to clients. He was referring to the near 500-basis-point difference between the premium to hold Greek debt versus German bonds, which serve as the region's benchmark.

Greece's problems selling debt are largely due to a lack of confidence in the vague European plan that Germany and France, along with the IMF, drew up to provide loans to Greece if needed.
All nations in the euro zone would have to approve a rescue, an unlikely prospect given intense opposition among voters in Germany. Plus, Greece could be charged market rates for the emergency loans, raising the possibility that the cure just adds to the disease, and the plan doesn't spell out exactly what role the IMF would play – always a politically dicey topic in a region at pains to be seen as capable of solving its own problems. “Investors are waking up to the fact that this is not really an agreement, it's like smoke and mirrors,” Nariman Behravesh, chief economist with IHS Global Insight of Lexington, Mass., one of the world's largest forecasting firms, said in an interview. “It's a way of Germany trying to appease Greece and some of its European allies without in any way upsetting its own electorate that is not interested in bailing Greece out.” The ECB's Mr. Trichet has said loans to Greece would not be subsidized, but on Thursday he suggested to reporters that their interest rates could be a function of the refinancing costs of the issuer, rather than Greece's current market rates.

Greece may manage to plug along for a while without emergency aid, but some time within the next three to six months the country will need some help, Mr. Behravesh said. Greek officials have repeatedly insisted that they don't need outside aid, while also acknowledging that the country can't keep borrowing at the current high rates for much longer. Deputy finance ministers from the EU and central bank officials are meeting this week in Brussels and that will include some discussion of possible loan terms. Yesterday, Mr. Trichet told reporters the existing package is a ``workable framework,” and denied suggestions he had opposed IMF involvement. But because it's questionable whether the existing plan would work, the EU may need to let the IMF, which has rescued economies from Iceland to Pakistan, come in and take the lead in rescuing one of Europe's own. “There is a way out, and that is that they swallow their pride and let the IMF come in and do the dirty work,” Mr. Behravesh said. “You will see at some point some emergency meeting of the European leaders in which the Germans will get the others to agree to let the IMF be the lead. The sooner they get to that, the better.” The largesse and proven track record of the IMF in executing successful, if unpopular, measures to get troubled countries back in shape could help restore confidence that the crisis won't get worse. And a light at the end of the tunnel for the Greek mess could be essential to keeping worries about mounting debt loads elsewhere in the world, mainly in richer countries, from spinning out of control. Credit Derivatives Research said this week that its Government Risk Index – made up of credit default swaps on seven of the largest sovereign debt issuers: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, the U.K. and the U.S. – jumped almost 40 per cent in the past month to the highest level since February.



With files from Boyd Erman in Toronto, Bloomberg and Reuters

THE PIGS WEDNESDAY MORNING WHOPPERS

THE PIG HATES REPETITION. BUT IF IT MEANS PORKY PROFIT, HE WILL REPEAT HIMSELF. TAKE THE CASE OF A COUPLE OF PIG PORK PICKS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS RECCOMENDATIONS, STRONG SCANS, GOOD TO GREAT CHARTS, JUST IN NEED OF A PUSH. THE PIG APOLOGIZES FOR THIS MORNINGS INABILITY TO COMPLETE THE BLOG. TECHNICAL GREMLINS HAVE SEEMED TO BE WORKED OUT. WE ARE BACK ON TRACK.

ITS A FULL SLATE TONIGHT, SO LETS GET UNDER WAY.

ON WITH THE SHOW.........

MHI.V...RECCO'D ON MARCH 26. THIS PIGGY IS IN AN ADVANCED ACCUMULATION STAGE AND THE SCANNER SHOWS IT. MOVING AVERAGES, AND MOMENTUM/SENTIMENT VECTORS SCORE REALLY HIGH ON THIS SCA SO ITS WORTH A FURTHER MENTION. SOMETHINGS BREWING, ITS LITHIUM WE HEAR WITH A LOW FLOAT AND SOME DECENT LIQUIDITY. ITS A BUY THE PIG FEELS.

RMD.V...NO REAL STORY OF THIS PIGLET AS YET. JUST SOME GREAT HEADS UP NUMBERS OF THE SCAN. BIG ACCUMULATION NUMBERS, REVERSAL IN MOVING AVERAGES FROM SOME PAST SCANS, MOMENTUM CHANGE ALSO. THE PIG FIGURES ITS GOOD FRO A 50% OR SO MOVE FROM HERE WITH ANY NEWS. THEN IT MIGHT BE TIME TO EXIT. SCANNER STILL UNCLEAR AS TO UPSIDE SO THE PIG WILL LOW BALL IT FOR NOW.

MAM.V..A TAD HIGH FLOAT FOPR THE PIG BUT THE SCANS SAY ITS GOT GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A DOUBLE FROM HERE. RECENT PP AT .12 SO WHEN IT CLOSES IT SHOULD BE MOVED UP. DO WE GET IN HERE ? TOUGH CALL, MAYBE FOR A FEW. SOME THINGS UNCLEAR AS YET TO THE SCANS BUT MORE BUY THAN HOLD SIGNALS FROM THE SCANNER ON IT TONIGHT.

SKE.V...THIS PORK CHOP BEARS WATCHING CLOSELY. SOME NEGATIVE PRES ABOUT THE MANAGEMENTS INTENTIONS TO CONSIDER. THE SCANNER HOWEVER, TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY. THE PIG LIKES TO TRADE BY THE NUMBERS. THE NUMBERS SAY ITS WORTH A WATCH. THE NUMBERS SAY ITS BEING BOUGHT BY SOMEONE FOR SOME REASON. SO WE CAN FOLLOW THE SMART MONEY. LETS KEEP AN EYE ON IT FOR NOW, AND IF THERE IS STEADY LIQUIDITY THEN IT MAY BE WISE TO GET A FEW.

SOI.V....THE LAST OF THE NIGHT IS A CURIOSITY BUT WORTH WATCHING. NOT ENOUGH STRENGTH IN A FEW AREAS TO MAKE IT A GREAT RECCO' BUT THE PIG FIGURES THE MANAGEMENT IS TRYING TO STRAIGHTEN ITS ACT UP SO LETS KEEP AN EYE ON IT, THE NUMBERS AND ANY AND ALL TRADING PATTERNS.

April 7, 2010

Ontario takes green lead with record $8-billion energy investment

By Karen Howlett, Richard Blackwell and Shawn McCarthy

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

Province to announce first premium-price contracts for renewable power  The Ontario government will announce today that it is awarding just over $8-billion in renewable energy projects to dozens of companies, making it the biggest investment of its kind in Canadian history. Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty is locked in a heated race with British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell for leadership in the burgeoning market for green-energy investments. And Mr. Campbell is manoeuvring to recapture the lead by rolling out legislation as early as next month.

 The total value of the renewable energy projects to be announced today eclipses the $7-billion deal the McGuinty government signed in January with a consortium led by South Korean industrial giant Samsung Group. This time around, the government is awarding contracts to entities ranging from first nations communities to major corporations from overseas, the United States and across Canada to develop wind, solar and run-of-river hydro projects, sources familiar with the deal said. Mr. McGuinty is counting on green energy to create jobs in the province's battered manufacturing heartland. He is vowing to create 50,000 new jobs through his Green Energy Act by luring investors with the promise of generous long-term contracts that include a guaranteed revenue stream.

 The Premier also plans to close the province's coal-fired electricity plants by 2014 and replace them with cleaner sources of power. "It really is about the future of renewable energy in this province and coal closure by 2014," one of the sources said of the announcement. Energy Minister Brad Duguid was to be at Durham College in Whitby, Ont., this morning to announce that the province is awarding its first major contracts under the so-called feed-in-tariff program - FIT for short - which pays premium prices for renewable power. The companies will receive a fixed price over 20 years for the electricity they produce - 13.5 cents a kilowatt hour for on-shore wind farms and up to 80.2 cents for solar power. These contracts with green power producers are well above the market price of 3.44 cents a kilowatt hour for electricity in Ontario and are leading to higher hydro bills for consumers. The Ontario Power Authority, the government agency that runs the program, has received more than 1,000 applications from companies, the sources said. The projects will create thousands of jobs, they said.


Brookfield Renewable Power, one of the largest renewable energy producers in North and South America and a subsidiary of Brookfield Asset Management, is among those hoping for good news today. Brookfield has several projects under development in Ontario, including two totalling 213 megawatts of capacity in Essex County on the shores of Lake Erie, and a 100-megawatt plant near the Northern Ontario town of Marathon. The company also won a 40-year power purchase agreement from the B.C. government last month to build a 45-megawatt run-of-river hydroelectric project on the northeast coast of Vancouver Island. For that Kokish River project, the Toronto-based company is partnering with 'Namgis First Nation. NextEra Energy Resources, the renewable energy arm of FPL Group that also owns Florida Power & Light, also applied for several projects under FIT and had high hopes for substantial growth in the province. The company applied for about 600 megawatts of wind projects.


Mike O'Sullivan, senior vice-president of development at NextEra, said FIT was such a well-designed program that it "will bring in all shades and colours of money from all parts of the world." He said if Ontario executes the FIT program properly, it could end up as one of the top five or 10 markets for renewable power in North America, among the 60 states and provinces.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
I was in the restaurant yesterday when I suddenly realized I desperately needed to pass gas. The music was really, really loud, so I timed my gas with the beat of the music. After a couple of songs, I started to feel better. I finished my coffee, and noticed that everybody was staring at me....


Then I suddenly remembered that I was listening to my iPod.


...and how was your day?

THE PAINTED PIGS TUESDAY TOPPERS

THE PIGS HAVING SOME TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES WITH THE BLOG TONIGHT. THE  TOP 3 SCANS ARE SHOWN BELOW. THE PIG HOPES THE BLOGPEOPLE WILL HAVE THE ISSUE RECTIFIED BY TOMMOROW NIGHT. HE APOLOGIZES FOR THE INCONVENIENCE TO THE READERS.

V.SLI....A REPEAT FROM A FEW DAYS BACK.
LOOKS READY TO GO.
V.LC....COPPER PLAY LOOKS LIKE ITS READY TO MOVE.
V.CCD...SECOND COPPER PLAY, AND YES IT
LOOKS READY TO MOVE.

THE PIGS MONDAY NIGHT PAINTED PIGGIES

THE PIG HAD SOME FRIENDS OVER TO THE STY TODAY. SAT AROUND IN THE SPRING SUN, DRINKING SOME BEER, (PIGS CAN DRINK BEER !) CHATTING ABOUT BARNYARD LIFE AND POLITICS. A MENTION WAS MADE REGARDING THE STATE OF MIND OF THE AVERAGE NORTH AMERICAN CITIZEN AND THEIR PENCHANT TOWARDS CONSUMERISM AND THE "GOTTA HAVE IT" GENERATION. THE PIG HAS MANY FRIENDS THAT ARE THE "KEEP UP WITH THE JONES" TYPE. THE PIG NEVER COTTONED ON TO THIS PARTICULAR PHILOSOPHY, MAINLY BECAUSE ITS RACE YOU CAN'T WIN.

THE PIG WAS ALWAYS A PAY CASH, BUY WHAT YOU NEED AND SAVE THE REST GUY. A SCOTTISH PIG YOU SAY ? NOPE, JUST FIGURED OUT THE WHOLE BANKING, MONEY, DEBT GAME LONG AGO AND NEVER WANTED TO EBA SLAVE TO THE BANK. NOW THIS NOT MEAN THE PIG WOULD NOT LOVED A NEW ESCALADE OR M CLASS SEDAN (YES !!! PIGS CAN DRIVE !), IT JUST MEANS HE NEVER WAS SUCKERED BY THE ALLURE OF THE BIG TICKET ITEMS. CAUSE IF THE PIG SPENDS IT, HE WON'T HAVE IT, AND THEN THE BANK WANTS TO LOAN IT, AND THEN YOU OWE IT, AND THEN YOU LOSE MORE OF IT TO THE BANK IN INTEREST AND................THE BANK WINS BECAUSE.......THEY NOW OWN YOU.

ON WITH THE SHOW.....

ARH.V...NOTHING LIKE A COLD SLAP IN THE FACE TO WAKE US UP. THE BIG SCANNER OF THE NIGHT, HAS ALL THE NUMBERS IN THE RIGHT PLACE. FIRST GLANCE SAYS WOW, SECOND SAYS WOW WOW. ACCUMULATION NUMBERS OBVIOUS, MOVING AVERAGES AND DISTRIBUTION ALREADY HIGH AND ON THE UPTURN. THE PIG FIGURES SOMETHINGS UP. MAYBE A GOOD SHORT TERMER FOR A FEW BUCKS. DOUBLE POSSIBLE. JUDGING BY THE NUMBERS.

NRK.V...SECOND BIG NUMBER PRODUCER OF THE NIGHT. NOTHING LIKE GETTING IN EARLY. NO STORY ON THIS FROM THE PIGS POINT OF VIEW BUT SOMETHING IS BREWIING. BIG CHANGE IN THE SENTIMENTS ON THE SCANNER FROM THE LAST TWO TRADING DAYS NUMBERS. MIGHT BE A GOOD TRADE IF LIQUIDITY BUILD BACK INTO IT. KEE A PIGS EYE ON IT....

SSA.V...THIRD HIGHEST SCANNER OF THE NIGHT. BIG JUMP TODAY FOR LITTLE REASON ? OR IOS THERE A BIG ONE. THE PIG SAYS THAT THIS IS A FINE EXAMPLE IN HOW HIS SCANNER WORKS BECAUSE THIS PIGLETS BEEN IN THE TOP 25 AND TOP 10 SCANS FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. CONFUSING THOUGH, SO THE PIG PAID LITTLE ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS. IT APPEARS SOMEONE LIKES THE DETAILS AND WANTED IN. MORE LIQUIDITY AND THE PIG WOULD CONSIDER BEING IN. WATCH AND WAIT. IF IT CONTINUES OKAY IF IT DIES, THEN YOUR NOT CAUGHT. YA GET THE PIG ?

THE PIGS HONORABLE MENTION......

NOT.V...APPEARS TO BE POISED TO MOVE. A PIG LONG TERM FAVORITE. IT HAS MANY PROPERTIES ITS WORKING AT PRESENT. THE RIGHT HIT AND AWAY SHE GOES. TAKE A GANDER.......

THE PIG GOES HMMMMM..........

Rentschler wrote in a note to clients earlier this week that buyers are "reverting back to their traditional buying habits." Prices of potash in the U.S. have edged up to $425-$450 per ton, which is the price range Rentschler said rekindles his enthusiasm for Potash Corp. in the near term.

Farmers cut back on potash purchases in 2009, which caused prices to plummet but sentiment for potash is improving as producers try to raise prices. On March 5, Canpotex, the exporter of Potash Corp., Mosaic and Agrium announced it was hiking its prices by $30 on potash sales which boosted prices above $400 a metric ton. Last month, another major potash exporter, Belarusian Potash Co., rised its prices by $25 a metric ton.






Potash is used heavily in agriculture and major markets for it are China, Brazil, India and the U.S. Rentschler, from Morgan Joseph, said that potash inventories are lean in China, India and Brazil and farmers there will likely be buying new supplies shortly.

V.AAA NEWS

Allana Potash Commences Phase I Drilling at Ethiopian Potash Project 

 




TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - April 5, 2010) - Allana Potash Corp. (TSX VENTURE:AAA) ("Allana" or the "Company"), is pleased to announce that it has commenced its Phase I drilling programme on its Ethiopian Potash Project in the Danakhil Depression. The drill is active at hole DK-10-01 which is located on the northern extension of the Musley Deposit and is designed to provide information on the potash mineralization between Parsons holes 233, 238 and 159. Hole DK-10-01 is expected to intersect the potash-bearing Houston Formation at a vertical depth of 75 metres. The Phase I programme is comprised of between 2,500 and 3,000 metres of drilling and is expected to be completed in approximately three months. 


In addition to the start of drilling, camp construction is approaching completion near the village of Hamadela and plans to expand the camp to accommodate additional personnel have been initiated. The camp will accommodate approximately 35 people and provide a safe and efficient base of operations for all upcoming Allana activities.


The Phase 1 programme currently consists of 7 holes and is designed to confirm historic drilling results, to confirm the accuracy of the previous resource and to potentially increase the resource. It is expected that drill holes will vary in depth from 200 metres to 800 metres and will test potash horizons near the current resource as well as in the centre of the evaporite basin. It is planned that the drill programme will be followed by down-hole seismic studies (vertical seismic profiling) and a programme of surface 2D seismic over the southern part of the basin. 


Farhad Abasov, President and CEO of Allana Potash, stated: "We are excited to start our drill program in the Danakil Depression almost 50 years after Parsons conducted its potash exploration. I would like to commend and congratulate our in-country exploration team which has done a terrific job in this regard. With the recently closed financing, Allana Potash is now in a position to complete not only the first phase of drilling, but also expects to complete 2D and down-hole seismic programs followed by a planned drill campaign of 10,000 meters." 


About Allana Potash Corp.


Allana is a publicly traded corporation with a focus on the acquisition and development of potash assets internationally with its major focus on a previously explored potash property in Ethiopia with NI 43-101-compliant Inferred Mineral Resource of over 100 million tonnes of potash mineralization (Sylvite and Kainite) with a composite grade of 20.8 % KCl (see News Release Sept. 17, 2008). Allana has approximately 114.8 million shares outstanding and trades on the TSX-Venture exchange under the symbol "AAA".


Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P. Geo., Allana's Senior VP Exploration, is a Qualified Person as defined under National Instrument 43-101 and has reviewed and approved the technical information presented in this release.


Forward-Looking Statement 


Except for statements of historical fact relating to the Company, certain information contained herein constitutes ''forward-looking information'' under Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking information includes, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the effect, results and estimated timeline of the drill programme and camp construction on the Company, estimated production, the estimation of mineral reserves and mineral resources; the realization of mineral reserve estimates; the timing and amount of estimated future production; costs of production; capital expenditures; success of exploration activities; permitting time lines and permitting, mining or processing issues; government regulation of mining operations; environmental risks; unanticipated reclamation expenses; title disputes or claims; litigation liabilities; limitations on insurance coverage and the effect of terminating the investor relations contract. Generally, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "plans", "expects" or "does not expect", "is expected", "budget", "scheduled", "estimates", "forecasts", "intends", "anticipates" or "does not anticipate", or "believes", or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "might" or "will be taken", "occur" or "be achieved". Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management as of the date such statements are made and they are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements or forward-looking information. Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and forward-looking information. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements or forward-looking information that are incorporated by reference herein, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.



FOR FURTHER INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:

Allana Potash Corp.
Farhad Abasov
President and CEO
+1-416-309-2691

THE PAINTED PIGS POTASH PORK PICK

V.AAA-ALLANA POTASH



SIMPLY STUNNING !- A MUST READ...THE PIG.






A Canadian/Chinese partnership to commercialize Africa’s first modern-day potash mine may yet get the ultimate endorsement from the world’s largest mining company, BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), by way of a takeover bid. So says Robert Winslow, a potash analyst at one of Canada’s leading investment banks, Toronto-based Wellington West Capital Markets, in reference to Toronto-based Allana Potash Corp. (TSX.V: AAA). “If BHP covets assets in multiple basins, Allana is an obvious target,” he announced earlier this month in a research paper, in which he alluded to BHP’s recent acquisition of another junior Canadian potash explorer, Athabasca Potash (TSX: API), at the heart of Saskatchewan’s prolific potash fields. Notably, BHP also has potash claims in close proximity to Allana’s land holdings in Ethiopia’s Danakil Potash Basin, which is shaping up to exhibit a “similar scale to Saskatchewan and Russian basins” (which collectively host most of the world’s largest potash reserves), Winslow also notes.






As of lately, BHP and other multinational mining powerhouses, as well as a tiny handful of potash explorers, have been jostling for position to access rich potash reserves – against a backdrop of rising crop prices and the imperative to boost crop yields to feed a burgeoning global population. In particular, the challenge to significantly boost China’s agricultural output is a call to action for Allana Potash, according to its president, Farhad Abasov. That is why the tiny mineral explorer plans to expand the overall size of its Ethiopian potash deposit within the next few weeks by way of drilling – and with an initial cash infusion from its new Chinese partner.






Ethiopia’s historic potash fields, known as the Danakil Basin, have never before experienced any meaningful mining activity and still offer considerable untapped potential, Abasov says. This is especially the case at the company’s expansive property, which has only seen small-scale production in the past. Now it is being groomed for a new lease on life as a full-scale mining operation after languishing for the last eight decades. China Minerals United Management purchased a $2 million equity stake in Allana last November in what the company’s management refers to as a “strategic off-take/financing agreement.” In other words, China Minerals is hoping to secure a long-term potash supply consisting of 20% of the mine’s future output, and at discounted prices (at least until China Minerals has recouped all of its expenditures on the mine development process).






In return, the deep-pocketed company, which is closely allied to one of the largest fertilizer companies in China, has agreed to commit 35% of the project’s estimated overall US $280 million in mine construction costs. That said, Allana will remain the sole owner of the project.






Allana has made a shrewd move by joining forces with Chinese financial backers, according to Phillip Williams, a mining analyst with the high-flying Toronto-based investment firm Pinetree Capital (which saw its net asset value per share increase 80% to $2.39 at the end of last year’s third quarter, compared to a $1.33 NAV per share as of December 31, 2008).






“This deal has put Allana on the map. It’s a serious validation for the company and the potash resources that it has. With China’s big appetite for commodities, they’re a natural fit for Allana,” Williams says.






Allana’s land holdings are only about 100 kilometers from the city of Mekele, giving the company ready access to mechanized equipment, labor and other logistical support. In the intervening years, the mine site and surrounding area have been intermittently explored. As the property has a well-documented drilling history, Allana has been able to build upon this drill data to complete an official (NI 43-101 compliant) mineral resource estimate consisting of 105 million tonnes of potash, averaging a favourable grade of 20.8%. However, the deposit still has plenty of “big picture” scope for additional growth, Abasov says. This is why his company’s new Chinese partner is particularly attracted to the logistics in favour of a richly mineralized, low-cost mining operation that could be in business for many years to come.






“To date, we have 105,200,000 tonnes of potash already outlined in the inferred category. Yet, we’re ultimately targeting a potential resource of up to four to five times this size, which would be world-class,” Abasov says.






The company’s 2010 drill program consists of two phases over the next few months. Together, they are intended to expand the deposit’s overall size, while also providing detailed enough drill data for a follow-up feasibility study (an initial blueprint for a mine), Abasov explains. This drill-delineated assessment of key capital expenditures and other start-up costs is also expected to demonstrate the mine’s amenability to being a prospectively low-cost producer. “We’re very confident that a future mine in this particular geological environment could be one of the lowest cost producers in the world,” Abasov says. By which he means that the deposit is amenable to low cost solution mining (involving the flooding of drill holes with hot water to dissolve the potash for extraction). This allows for a scalable rollout of mining operations that Allana believes could have the mine up and running in record time – by around 2013 or early 2014.






Conversely, “brownfield” (conventional) mines elsewhere in the world typically take 5-7 years to build and each involves daunting costs of around US $2-3 billion. This hefty price tag is one of the reasons why the commercialization of new potash mines during the past few decades has been a very rare event.






Then there’s the fact that the world’s supplies of potash are tightly controlled. In fact, over 150 nations import potash but only a dozen or so actually produce this indispensible agricultural nutrient (of which Canada, Russia and Belarus account for about 80% of global output).






Furthermore, the furnace that runs China’s booming economy has to be constantly stoked, which is why the world’s new superpower is scouring Africa for inexpensive supplies of natural resources. Ones that can be locked-in over the long-term. Hence, Africa’s scarce potash deposits are of great strategic value. Especially since the Chinese clearly begrudge the high prices they have been paying in recent years to Canpotex – the marketing arm of Canada’s potash cartel. This reality is underscored by the fact that China balked at renewing its annual purchasing contract last year after months of tense negotiations. Instead, a deal was struck in last December with Belarusian Potash, the world’s biggest exporter of the soil nutrient, at a deeply discounted US $350 a ton.






China has publicly acknowledged that it needs to at least double its application of fertilizers to maximize its crop yields in order to produce better quality food and in more plentiful quantities. Hence, China’s National Development and Reform Commission is encouraging state-owned and private Chinese mining and oil companies to forge close economic ties with underdeveloped African nations. In the case of Ethiopia, this is obviously a shrewd move as this historically war and famine ravaged nation is now a politically stable developing economy with a democratic government. In recent years, Ethiopia has also implemented investor-friendly legislation, including legal safeguards for foreign mining companies, such as constitutional protection from expropriation.

THE PAINTED PIGS WEEKEND WONDERS APRIL 3-4, 2010

THE PIG APOLOGIZES. THE BLOG SERVICE WAS DOWN LAST NIGHT AND THE PIG WAS UNABLE TO GET SERVICE TO THE FARM COMPUTER. ALONG WITH THIS WEEKENDS USUAL SCANS, A SPECIAL REPORT ON A LONG TERM PICK OF THE PIGS, AAA.V, ALLANA POTASH. SO RATHER THAN DILLY DALLY, LETS GET TO THE BUSINESS AT HAND.

ON WITH THE SHOW.....

AAA.V..THE PIGS GOT A LOVE FOR THIS CHART. IT STILL SCANS SOME NICE NUMBERS. IT HAS EXCEPTIONAL MANAGEMENT, IT HAS TWO EXCEPTIONAL PROPERTIES. IT HAS AN EXCEPTIONAL OPORTUNITY FOR PROMOTION, AND A FEW OTHER HIGHLY PRIZED ATTRIBUTES VALUED IN A STOCK. BEST OF ALL, BECAUSE OF ITS PROXIMITY TO SEVERAL INTERNATIONAL MAJORS,  ITS HEADED RIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF A POTENTIAL BIDDING WAR. THE PIGS TARGET OF $3 BY THE FALL IS NO DOUBT A CURIOSITY AND A BIT LAUGHABLE TO SOME. THE PIG HAS QUITE A SENSE OF HUMOUR.....BUT HE IS VERY SERIOUS ABOUT THIS COMPANY. THE PIG OWNS OVER 50,000 SHARES OF AAA.V.

SLI.V...THE PIG WROTE UP THIS PORK CHOP JUST A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO. SEE THAT ENTRY FOR A REVIEW. THE PIG JUST BOUGHT A COUPLE OF THOUSAND SHARES THIS WEEK. THE PIG SCANS ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE REAL TIP CAME FROM A PIG CONTACT. THE PIGS CONTACT HAS LOFTY PREDICTIONS FOR THIS CHOICE CHOP. TOO HIGH TO PRINT AND NOT GET LAUGHED OFF THE BLOG. AS WITH AAA.V THE PIG SAYS ITS A LONG TERM BUY THAT COULD GO MULTIPLE, EVEN FROM CURRENT LEVELS.

NEW CHOICE CHOPS.....................

REV.V...THE PIGS NOT SURE WHAT THE HUBBUB IS BUT THE SCANNERS SURE PICKED UP ON IT. ACCUMULATION TO THE MAX, DISTRIBUTION TO THE UPSIDE, MOVING AVERAGES TO THE UPSIDE AND NO APPRECIABLE NEWS. WHATS THAT TELL US ? YES THAT SOMEONE KNOWS SOMETHING AND NEWS IS PROBABLY COMING. ACT CAREFULLY AND WATCH FOR LIQUIDITY IMPROVEMENT, BUT ITS SURE A TEMPTING TIDBIT TO OWN.

CTE.V..A PREVIOUS PIG PICK FROM A DAYS BACK, BUT  WITH ONE OR TWO DELICIOUS TWISTS. ACCUMULATION CONTINUING, LIQUIDITY STAEDY, BUT THE MOVING AVERAGES ARE SHOWING PRE EXPLOSIVE NUMBERS. ONCE AGAIN, WATCH FOR LIQUIDITY FOLLOW THROUGH AND CONTINUED ACCUMULATION. IF GOT IN ON THE FIRST RECCO THEN CONSIDER SOME PROFIT TAKING AND MORE PATIENCE.

ERI.V...THE PIGS REALLY NOT SURE OF THE STORY HERE...AND YES ITS FALLEN OFF THE EDGE A BIT. BUT THE SCANNERS PICKED UP A LARGE CHANGE IN SOME AREAS THAT INDICATES TO THE PIG THAT SENTIMENT IS CHANGING, AND FOR THE UPSIDE. THE PIG WARNS THOUGH, LIQUIDITY (VOLUME), THEN A SMALL POSITION AND THEN PATIENCE. THERES A CHOICE CHOP HIDDEN IN THERE SOMEWHERE. BUT THE PIG NEEDS A BIT MORE COMFIRMATION BEFORE WADING IN.

Crude oil leads markets skyward......

By Dan Healing And Shaun Polczer, Calgary HeraldApril 2, 2010


Oil and gas stocks soared, the loonie flapped to within a cent of parity and crude prices touched above $85 US per barrel Thursday as buoyant economic news boosted investor sentiment.


On the heels of the richest initial public offering in Canadian oilpatch history -- $1.35 billion raised by Calgarybased Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. on Tuesday -- stock markets marched resolutely upwards. Oil-weighted players led the way, as the S&P/TSX capped energy index jumped three per cent, with PetroBakken Energy gaining 9.4 per cent to $29.01. Oilsands players were right behind. Cenovus Energy rose 5.8 per cent to $28.06, UTS Energy ascended 5.8 per cent to $2.57 and Canadian Oil Sands climbed 5.1 per cent to $32.01. The broader Toronto market index climbed 113.33 points to 12,151.06 and the Dow Jones in New York closed at 10,927.07, up 70.44 points. Both reached highs not seen since September 2008. Oil settled at $84.87 US a barrel, up $1.11, after hitting an 18-month high of more than $85 earlier in the session. "The bigger picture for oil prices is the impressive array of global economic indicators we've seen in recent days, which to me suggests the global economy gained further momentum in March," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist for BMO Capital Markets.

 "Specifically on the Canadian dollar, I think it's gotten a boost from this upturn in oil prices, but it's also been supported domestically by another series of strong numbers for Canada, which heighten the odds of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates with or without the Fed this year." Porter said BMO has bumped up its national gross domestic product growth forecast to 3.4 per cent from 2.6 per cent at the start of the year.Both Porter and Scotiabank commodities specialist Patricia Mohr expect the crude oil price to lose strength later this year and neither has changed the forecast based on recent events. Porter has an average price forecast of $78 this year and $85 next year, while Mohr predicts $83 and $87, respectively."Commodities were just surging today, almost across the board, with particular strength in oil," said Mohr. "What this really boils down to is the commodity markets are beginning to anticipate a strengthening recovery in industrial activity across the G-7 countries and with that a recovery in demand for raw materials, including oil."

 The Athabasca offering is more about the strength of equity markets than the price of oil, Porter said. "It shows the increasing risk appetite of investors more broadly. Definitely it's a thumb's-up for the oil market as well," he said. Walter Zimmermann Jr., chief technical analyst for United-Icap brokers in New Jersey, suggested commodities such as energy, and equity markets reach a seasonal peak before falling back again in May."You would expect this going into April," he said. "You almost always get some sort of uplift going into spring."But he suggested higher interest rates later this summer would keep a lid on energy prices and the stock market. Governments in both Canada and the United States are expected to start tightening monetary stimulus later in the year, which is code for higher rates. That in turn will slow the economy and reduce demand for products such as oil, Zimmermann said. "We might have a shot at $100 (a barrel) before May," he added.Martin King, a commodities analyst with FirstEnergy in Calgary, said in a weekly research note the rally could be short-lived.

 "Not to say that it should be reversing course and heading lower, but simply that the necessary physical ingredients are absent, for the moment, to sustain a push to higher price levels." Higher oil prices gave support to the Canadian dollar, which traded within a cent of parity to its U.S. counterpart, closing at 99.17 cents US, up 73 basis points.The loonie strengthened against 14 of its 16 most-traded counterparts, including the euro and the yen, after a report Wednesday showed the nation's economy grew in January at the fastest pace in three years."The Canadian dollar is up on positive underlying sentiment and broad-based (U. S.) dollar weakness," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York. "I do think parity will happen."


The dollar tends to track movements in stocks and commodities, which has earned it the title of "petrodollar."Oil rose after economic data from the world's three largest economies reinforced confidence in the global economic rebound. U.S. manufacturing expanded last month at the fastest pace since July 2004, according to the Institute for Supply Management's factory index, which exceeded economists' forecasts. China's manufacturing expanded at a faster pace, while a Bank of Japan survey showed confidence among the nation's largest manufacturers rose for a fourth straight quarter."The tone of data releases was all better-than-expected," said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. "Equities and commodities are posting gains. Unsurprisingly, the Canadian dollar as a risk-correlated currency is doing well."


Canada is "not going to be protectionist," Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said in an interview with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio. While Canadian companies are not doing enough to boost productivity, the country's automobile sector is improving after last year's shutdowns, he said. Gross domestic product increased 0.6 per cent in January, the fifth straight gain and the biggest since December 2006, Statistics Canada said Wednesday. "The Canadian economy is firing on all cylinders," said Omer Esiner, a senior foreign-exchange analyst in Washington at Travelex Global Business Payments, a currency-exchange network.



spolczer@theherald.canwest.com

 Thursday On The Markets

Canadian dollar: 99.17 cents US, up 73 basis points

Oil: $84.87 US a barrel, up $1.11

S&P/TSX: 12,151.06, up 113.33 points

TSX Venture: 1,602.54, up 26 points

Dow Jones: 10,927.07, up 70.44 points

Nasdaq: 2,402.58, up 4.62 points

Gold: $1,126.10 US an ounce, up $11.60

© Copyright (c) The Calgary Herald


Commodity bulls may be due a Chinese reality check



By Christopher Brown-humes
Published: April 2 2010 19:56
Last updated: April 2 2010 19:56

Commodities are booming, we learned again this week, with news of a near-doubling in iron ore prices for this quarter. The same is true of mining shares. The FTSE All-Share mining index was up 4.6 per cent in London’s holiday-shortened week. The rise owed less to the news about iron ore than the raft of positive global manufacturing data on Thursday that supported the growing view that the recovery is gathering momentum and the world can avoid a double-dip recession.  But at these levels even the most ardent commodity bull has to question whether the sector is becoming overvalued. Mining stocks have tripled from their low in December 2008. Rio Tinto’s shares pushed above £40 on Thursday, after hitting a nadir of £8.66 on December 5, 2008 (they are still below their £58 peak in May 2008). BHP shares at £23 are already above their summer 2008 peak of £21.96. And Xstrata shares, worth less than £3 in early March last year, are now worth £13 apiece.


The rally owes most to the fact that Chinese growth was not derailed by the recession that hit the world’s other main economies. Indeed, the Chinese economy has continued growing strongly thanks to its spending on infrastructure which is very metals – and hence commodities – intensive. But what if economic recovery picks up in other parts of the world, as Friday’s US non-farm payrolls figures suggest? That could give another leg to the commodities rally. Xstrata concluded a coal deal with Japan this week at a level that was better than expected and oil also broke out of its recent trading range, hitting $85 a barrel.

There is every indication, in other words, that miners are heading for a profits bonanza. BHP calculates that every $1 rise in the annual price of iron ore adds $80m to its net profits and every $1 rise in the coking coal price adds $25m. But it is going to be harder to make profit forecasts in future because iron ore prices will no longer be negotiated on an annual basis, as they have been for the past 40 years. They will now be fixed quarterly, based on recent spot market levels. In the April-June quarter, prices will be $110-$120 a tonne, compared with the $60-a-tonne level at which the 2009-10 annual contracts were settled. If the April-June price holds for the whole year, BHP profits will rise by a whopping $4.8bn.

But that is a big if. Which brings us to the key question facing all investors in commodities in the coming months. Will Chinese demand hold at recent levels? The optimists believe China will continue to stockpile commodities, underpinning demand. The sceptics say the country’s booming economy will have to be cooled by monetary tightening and that will eventually hurt demand. Interestingly, investors in the Chinese stock market appear less bullish about the country’s prospects than those in other markets, given that the Shanghai Composite fell by 5 per cent in the first quarter. This cannot be ignored unless the country’s stock market is completely divorced from its fundamental economic health. Another reason to doubt whether the mining rally is sustainable is that commodity price rises will feed into increased manufacturing costs and ultimately higher inflation. That will inevitably lead to higher global interest rates.


But this is not an issue in the short term. The short-term issue is that if mining profits are going to explode, how will miners spend their bonanza? Higher dividends, special dividends, share buy-backs and renewed corporate activity are all possibilities. There certainly seems to be some unfinished business on the corporate front. At the height of the commodities boom, BHP sought to merge with Rio Tinto, Vale of Brazil attempted to buy Xstrata and Xstrata approached Lonmin. Since then Xstrata has had to abandon a plan to merge with Anglo-American. A new round of takeover activity could give a further push to share prices. But investors should also be wary about predators overpaying and regulators intervening in an industry that has already seen a great deal of concentration.

chris.brown-humes@ft.com




THE PIGS WEBSITE OF THE WEEK.................

(A PIG FAV....)

http://chartgame.com/

THE PAINTED PIG SPECIAL THURSDAY ALERT

THE PIG GETS A TON OF MAIL, A FEW GOOD CONTACTS AND SOME DECENT FEEDBACK. ONE OF THE THINGS THE PIG TRIES TO STAY AWAY FROM IS THE PROVERBIAL "HOT" TIP. USUALLY BECAUSE BY THE TIME WE GET IT, ITS NO LONGER HOT. THIS CASE IS A BIT DIFFERENT, DUE TO THE FACT IT COMES FROM TWO DIFFERENT AND UNRELATED SOURCES. WE ARE A BIT LATE TO THE PARTY OR A BIT EARLY DEPENDING HOW YOU LOOK AT IT. THE STORY IS AN AREA PLAY, NEXT TO ONE OF THE LARGEST GOLD PLAYS IN MANY YEARS. THE  PIG SAYS DO SOME DUE DILIGENCE AND DECIDE FOR YOURSELF.

THE SCANNER DID TWO RUNS ON IT AND BOTH CAME OUT WITH SOME BOFFO NUMBERS. THE PIG WILL BE BUYING A COUPLE OF THOUSAND TO SIT ON FOR A FEW MONTHS, NOT A FORTUNE'S WORTH BUT THE PIG IS NOT A GREEDY PIG. THE REST IS UP TO YOU.......

SLI.V...THE PIG GOT THE HEADS UP ON THIS A FEW DAYS BACK BUT AS USUAL THE PIG IGNORED THE "HOT" TIP. WELL THIS IS ONE OF THOSE "I WAS WRONG" CASES. SO WE ARE IN A BIT LATE. HOWEVER, FORM WHAT I HAVE ANALYZED THE STOCK HAS SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE !! ITS BEEN UNDER ACCUMULATION FOR ALMOST A YEAR ! THE RUMOUR FACTOR HAS TO BE INCLUDED AND THE SCANNED NUMBERS WERE ALL TRENDING "UP" ! THE PIG THINKS IN THE MEDIUM TO LONG TERM (12 MONTHS OUT) THIS COULD BE A MULTIPLER DOLLAR TRADE FORM THESE LEVELS. YES, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE MONTIORED AND PROFITS TAKEN, BUT ITS A RISK THE PIG IS WILLING TO TAKE. YOU DECIDE....