THE PAINTED PIG'S TUESDAY MORNING PORK PATTIES

BELOW IS AN INTERESTING EXCERPT FROM BROKER THE PIG RECEIVES A DAILY UPDATE FROM. ITS AN INTERESTING READ.......THE LINK IS BELOW AND YOU CAN GET IT SENT TO YOU EVERYDAY FOR FREE AND AT NO OBLIGATION. OCCASIONALLY ITS A VERY ENLIGHTENING READ.

e-mail: debbie.lewis@canaccord.com

S&P/TSX COMPOSITE 11830.60 -184.37

CRUDE OIL $70.50 -1.11


A truly ugly day in the markets yet again, as the soaring American dollar affects virtually all commodity prices negatively, the Greeks with the massive budget deficit are saved in the nick of time by a European loan (and look at the size of those budget deficits of those European countries…many of them are going to have to seriously cut expenses which means big hurts to economies with services not paid and wages that have to be lowered) and if that’s not bad enough, the Chinese are suggesting they want to slow their economic growth. It’s ugly! While we have mentioned a few times not to have anything on margin, obviously cash looks like a great place to be for the next couple of months while the world sorts yet another crisis out.

We assume the European economies will slow, North America will stay steady and Asia will just keep chugging, thankfully with their demand for oil and other commodities making that sector still a place to be. Which gets us to this:


NATURAL GAS $4.39 +0.08


The only commodity we can find up is natural gas and we go back to Henry Groppe’s comments that we seem to be dwelling on as the legendary oil and gas guy suggests we will see gas prices double in the coming while. We can’t see a single other analyst coming anywhere close to that, but gas is up today and we suggest with the bust in some of the shale plays in the U.S., gas might be the place to be. We should point out that this is not universal as Raymond James today puts out an in-depth look at natural gas and they write, “The DOE thinks year-over-year U.S. dry gas supply will grow about 0.5 Bcf/day in 2010. Consensus expectations from Wall Street are similar. We think that both the DOE and consensus
expectations for 2010 U.S. gas supply growth are not just wrong but way wrong. After looking at the recently revised EIA-914 gas supply data, gas storage trends, public company results, and thE latest drilling information, we now believe y/y domestic gas supply
will be up a whopping 6 Bcf/day by this September. For the full year, 2010 gas supply should be up over 3 Bcf/day and summerover-summer gas supply should be at nearly 4Bcf/day!” There are always two sides to the argument and they are obviously negative players on natural gas.
To us, the fact that some of the shale plays aren’t working out and they won’t see the work that many had suspected, suggests that sooner or later the environmentally preferred fuel will see higher demand and if Henry Groppe is alone yet again with his opinion, we wonder if he is not right.

SLI.V ....BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN ? THE PIG RAN A FEW HIGHER PRICED SYMBOLS THROUGH THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND LO AND BEHOLD AN OL FRIEND CAME UP AS THE BIG WINNER. SOME BIG NUMBERS ALL AROUND BUT THE BIGGEST COMES TO US FROM A DETAILED VOLUME COMPARISON WE RAN. NOT ONLY HAS THIS BEEN ACCUMULATED STRONGLY OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS, THE MONEY HAS STUCK WITH IT. SO THE PIG FEELS THAT WITH THAT VALUE OF DOLLAR CAPITAL STICKING CLOSE BY, THERE MUST BE SOMETHING "UP"........POSSIBLY THE PRICE WILL BE SOON AS WELL. NIBBLE A FEW IF YOU WANT MIGHT MAKE FOR A NICE SUMMER PROFIT.....

SXL.V...THE SCANNER PICKED THIS ONE FOR NUMBER ONE FOR THE EVENING. RUMOURS UPON RUMOURS SURROUND IT, AND AN APPARENT PENDING MOVE. THE PIG SAYS WAIT UNTIL LIQUIDITY IS CONSTANT AND POSSIBLY A DOUBLE WILL BE IN THE WORKS. GIVE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO, OR IF IT MOVES ON SMALL VOLUME YOU KNOW DEMAND IS PENT UP. TAKE A SWIM FOR A FEW.......

GPO.V...IMPATIENCE KILLS.....CERTAINLY THATS THE TERM FOR THIS CHART. A PREVIOUS PIG PICK ALSO, ITS AWAITING SAMPLING IS THE STORY THE PIG HEARS. ACCUMULATORS APPEAR TO HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE IMPATIENT WITH THE COMPANY. FEAR NOT ! THE SCANNER SAYS ITS "IN PLAY"...FOR THOSE PLAYERS OUT THERE THIS COULD BE A GREAT RISK REWARD RATIO AS THE SCANNER SAYS SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE WITH A JOLT OF  NEWSWORTHYNESS. A GOOD TRADE.....

TSX Ends Notably Lower As Commodities Lead Broad-Based Sell-Off

5/17/2010 4:54 PM ET

Canadian stocks slumped for a third session Monday as concerns about the long-term impact of the euro-zone debt crisis on the global economy outweighed continuing signs of recovery in the US. Heavyweight resource stocks were badly beaten as the greenback remained firm, and gold shares too weakened even as bullion prices resisted a fall. Banks and industrials too succumbed to selling pressure, making the decline broad-based. The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 201.97 points or 1.68% at 11,813.00, but well off its intra-day low of 11,695.61.


The main index has eased 382 points or just over 3% in 3 sessions, and is nearly 4% down from the 19-month high reached in late-April. Suncor Energy (SU.TO) fell 2.50% and Pacific Rubiales Energy (PRE.TO) gave in 6.12%. June crude oil settled down $1.55 at $70.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a five-month low of $69.27.


Among base metal stocks, Teck Resources (TCK_B.TO) eased 6.31% while Quadra Mining (QUA.TO) and FNX Mining (FNX.TO) surrendered over 9% each. The Global Gold Index shed 2.12%, with Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) down 2.57% and Kinross Gold (K.TO) down 2.91%. June gold settled up $0.30 at $1228.10 per troy ounce, after fluctuating in a tight range amid a tug-of-war between safe-haven buying and profit taking at higher levels. Bombardier (BBD_B.TO) lost 3.34% and Finning International (FTT.TO) gave in 2.93%, dragging the industrial sector down 1.67%.


In the financial sector, Scotiabank (BNS.TO) trimmed 2.66% and National Bank (NA.TO) dropped 1.60%. Canada's second biggest lender TD Bank (TD.TO) ended lower 1.92%. The bank announced plans to expand its presence in the US Southeast through the acquisition of South Carolina-based financial services firm South Financial Group, paying nearly $61 million in cash or stock for South Financial's common shares, and $130.6 million in cash to the US Treasury to buy the company's preferred stock.


News and information giant Thomson Reuters (TRI.TO), which revealed that it acquired Brazilian legal publisher Revista dos Tribunais, lost 0.90%. Aviation-training equipment and services provider CAE (CAE.TO) added 0.42%. The Montreal-based company secured a C$90 million contract from US aerospace and defense contractor Lockheed Martin, for providing maintenance training support for Canada's new fleet of 17 CC-130J Hercules transport aircraft. Copper and molybdenum miner Mercator Minerals (ML.TO), which reported a wider first-quarter loss of $11.5 million compared to $10.65 million for the year-ago period, fell 14.80%. Oilfield equipment and services provider High Arctic Energy Services (HWO.TO) surged 13.64% after reporting a first-quarter profit that doubled to C$3.8 million from the year-ago period.


In economic news from the US, results of the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing survey for May showed that the general business conditions index fell to 19.1 in May from 31.9 in the previous month, a bigger decline compared to economists' estimate for the index to edge down to 30. However, a positive reading indicates growth in the manufacturing sector.


Results of the National Association of Homebuilders' May survey revealed that the index of home builder confidence rose for the second consecutive month, to its highest level in more than two years. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to a reading of 22 in May from 19 in April, higher than an increase to a reading of 20 economists had expected.

Gold price keeps rising




Tuesday, 18/05/2010



The financial crisis in Greece, and the resulting uncertainty in Europe, has pushed the gold price up to more record highs. On Friday, the American price of the precious metal hit a record high of $US1250 an ounce.  While it's an all-time high in US currency, the price is still around $150 below the Australian record. Surbiton Associates analyst Dr Sandra Close says when markets are turbulent, investors flock to gold. "It has intrinsic value but it's a physical thing," she says.
"It's nobody else's. They're not going to change the bank notes or something. "There's a real certainty and there's a very human aspect to it.  "I think over the millennia, humans have relied on gold." One West Australian mining analyst believes the gold price will reach $1500 an ounce within the next three months. Peter Strachan says the current demand for physical gold will push prices up by around 10 per cent. "I would say that's a very doable target over the next two or three months, sort of $150 an ounce on where we are currently in Australian dollar terms, and virtually put the glasses down on that one, I would say."

WORLD CUP 2010: South Africa prepares for turn in world spotlight


By The Associated Press
Posted: Tuesday, May 18, 2010 12:43 am

JOHANNESBURG — The World Cup kicks off in South Africa in a less than a month, and what awaits hundreds of thousands of visitors is a nation of contrasts. A country once defined around the globe by its brutal, institutionalized racism will be the showpiece of Africa, the first nation on the continent to host the top tournament of the planet’s most popular sport. A region beset by poverty, crime and AIDS is hopeful that its moment of worldwide attention — from the opening game June 11 to the final on July 11 — will propel it up the ranks of global competitors in business and tourism.


“I think South Africans want to celebrate this event,” said Udesh Pillay, who oversaw research looking at what the World Cup could mean to South Africa, resulting in the book “Development and Dreams.” “They want to use it to showcase their country, its beauty, its ability, its competence.” The World Cup is a chance “to re-brand and give our country a new image,” Greg Fredericks, chief of staff for tournament organizer Danny Jordaan, told lawmakers in Johannesburg who summoned him for a month-to-go update on preparations last week. “We know that Africa is seen as a dark continent,” he said, citing stories by foreign journalists who have focused on unemployment, inequality and high crime in reporting on South Africa and the World Cup.


“I don’t think they could believe that a country here on the tip of Africa could organize an event as big as the World Cup,” Fredericks said. “This World Cup will definitely help people to change their perceptions of Africa.” Visitors will be warmly welcomed by black and white South Africans, who traditionally place great importance on showing hospitality to strangers and who have been admonished by tournament organizers to be on better than best behavior during the World Cup.
Fans will see five new stadiums and one — Johannesburg’s Soccer City — that was so completely overhauled it might as well be new. South Africa spent $1.3 billion to get 10 stadiums ready for the World Cup, while road and airport construction was speeded up for the tournament.


South Africa’s scars also will be on display.


Tourists will be wary of crime, and there’s no guarantee the country’s famously restive work force won’t use the World Cup platform to strike for more pay. The April death of a white supremacist leader, Eugene Terreblanche, focused attention on racial tensions, though police blame black farm workers they say had been involved in a wage dispute with Terreblanche. South African police have announced they had confiscated weapons and arrested suspects linked to white right-wing groups, but stressed there was no threat to the World Cup. Blacks for the most part still live in poverty, and the gap between rich and poor has only grown since 1994. The end of apartheid was also the beginning of a national experiment in building unity. Sport has been used to move the process. Recalled by last year’s Oscar-nominated film “Invictus,” black President Nelson Mandela made a statement at the 1995 rugby World Cup final by wearing the green and gold jersey of the Springboks, the country’s national rugby team many blacks associated with the most racist whites. Pillay, a researcher at South Africa’s Human Science Research Council, said the World Cup “now is the emotional glue that holds the country together.”


While soccer fans might be shocked to see beggars — black and white — outside gleaming shopping malls, South Africans are used to living in two worlds at once. Think of the legions of black maids who leave shacks without running water or electricity, boarding buses before dawn to travel into white areas to clean palatial homes. Johannesburg businessman Mandla Sibeko summed up the contrasts: “South Africa, we’re a crazy nation. “The world is going to be amazed at how hopeful and how patient South Africans are.” He began planning for the World Cup soon after South Africa won the bid in 2004. In 2008, he went into partnership with a British company that specializes in advertising at stadiums, and together won the bid to coordinate ads at the World Cup venues. The World Cup, Sibeko said, “is the moment when we stand on a platform and show the world how far we have come.”

THE PAINTED PIGS WEEKEND WONDERS MAY 15-16, 2010

THE PIG WONDERS WHATS TO BE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A REPORTED 3 MILLION GALLONS A DAY FLOWING IN TO IT, WHATS TO BE LEFT BEHIND ONCE THE PIPE IS CAPPED (IF) ? SCIENTISTS ARE REPORTING INTER DEPTH OIL "PLUMES" IN THE HUNDREDS OF FEET OF DEPTH AND MILES LONG AND WIDE. THE TERM DISASTER DOESN'T DO IT JUSTICE. WHATS TO BE OF THE OIL INDUSTRY AND OFFSHORE DRILLING IN THE FUTURE ? DOES BP AS A COMPANY SURVIVE ? A TRAGEDY OF EPIC PROPORTION ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT. 

THE PIG THINKS HES FOUND A FEW MORE DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH WITH THIS WEEKENDS SCANS. BUT LETS ALLOW YOU (AND THE MARKET) DECIDE. FIRST OFF, A REVIEW OF GAP.V.

ON WITH THE SHOW.....

GAP.V...THE PIG FIGURES THAT THE REASON THE SELL OFF WAS SO PRONOUNCED AFTER WHAT WAS  AN EXCEPTIONAL NR WAS THE COMBINATION OF PENNY FLIPPERS AND WARRANT HOLDERS, AND THE PIG CAN'T FAULT THEM, A PROFIT IS A PROFIT AFTER ALL, WITH THESE ELEMENTS MEETING AT THE SAME TIME. FOLLOWED BY A SPECULATION MINI PANIC. NEVERTHELESS, AN ANNOUNCEMENT THE FOLLOWING DAY IN AN ARTICLE IN THE OTTAWA CITIZEN NEWSPAPER GIVES US CLUES OF AN APPARENT RUN COMING FOR THE STOCK. THE PIG SAYS THAT THIS HAS DOUBLE WRITTEN ALL OVER IT FROM HERE AND MAYBE MORE WITH THE RIGHT PROMO EFFORT. THIS WEEK WILL BEGIN TO TELL THE TALE.

GPG.V...THE BIG SCANNER OF WEEKS END ON FRIDAY. LOTS OF RUMOURS FLOATING AROUND ABOUT BIG DEALS COMING ETC. THE PIG READS THE SCAN RESULTS AND SEES THE TURAROUND IN SENTIMENT, NET CAPITAL, AND MOVING AVERAGES. ACTUALLY ONE OF THE LARGEST NUMERICAL TURNAROUNDS THAT THE SCANNER HAS EVER SHOWN. HE THINKS THAT "IF" THERE IS ANY FIRE TO THIS SMOKE, THEN SHE COULD GO UP BIG.

GAX.V...ANOTHER TURNAROUND STORY FROM THE SCANNER. SOME GREAT NUMBERS GENERATED AND A CHART WORTH WATCHING SAYS THE PIG. IF LIQUIDITY CONTINUES, THIS COULD BE A PLAYER FOR US AND A NICE PORK CHOP PROFIT.

TRV.V...THE THIRD TURNAROUND TRADE OF THE WEEKEND. THE SCANNER RAN HIGH AND HARD ON THIS ONE AS IT WAS IN COMPETITION WITH ANOTHER CHART THAT WAS VERY CLOSE IN NUMBERS. WHY THIS ONE ? WELL, THE PIG THINKS THAT THERE'S A BEHIND THE SCENES DEAL PERCOLATING HERE. COMBINE A DECENT NR WITH A LOW FLOAT AND SOME GREAT NET CAPITAL INFLOWS AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS OF A GREAT TRADER.

Illinois is broke, and can’t pay its bills

Crisis pushes businesses, organizations to edge of bankruptcy

By CHRISTOPHER WILLS

Associated Press Writer

The Associated Press

updated 2:43 p.m. MT, Thurs., May 13, 2010

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. - For 35 years, frail senior citizens in southern Illinois could turn to the Shawnee Development Council for help cleaning the house, buying groceries or any of the chores that make the difference between living at home or moving to an institution.

No more. The council shut down the program Thursday because of a budget crisis created by the state of Illinois' failure to pay its bills.

Paralyzed by the worst deficit in its history, the state has fallen months behind in paying what it owes to businesses and organizations, pushing some of them to the edge of bankruptcy.

Illinois isn't bothering with the formality of issuing IOUs, as California did last year. It simply doesn't pay.

Plenty of states face major deficits as the recession continues. They're cutting services or raising taxes or expanding gambling to close the gap. But Illinois is taking the extra step of ignoring bills.

Right now, $4.4 billion worth of bills, some dating back to October, are sitting in the Illinois comptroller's office waiting to be paid someday.

Shawnee Development, for instance, is waiting on about $380,000 in back payments, officials say. That amounts to one-quarter of the council's budget for senior care in seven southern counties. "It makes me mad as heck," said Georgia Smith, a 66-year-old volunteer at the agency. Seniors, she said, "are used to paying our bills, paying our way."

Prisons refused bulletsIllinois' deadbeat reputation has created some embarrassing situations.

A supplier refused to sell bullets to the Department of Corrections unless it got paid in advance. Legislators have gotten eviction notices for their district offices because the state wasn't paying rent. One legislator said he had to use campaign funds to pay the telephone bill after service was cut off at his office.

The practice of simply putting off payments became commonplace under ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who liked to spend but adamantly opposed a tax increase to help cover costs. Before he was arrested and kicked out of office, Blagojevich's toxic relationship with legislators essentially paralyzed government, so bills just piled up.

The strategy also may have been helped along by Illinois' "anything goes" political culture. When voters believe government decisions hinge on campaign contributions and shady deals, they're less likely to expect responsible fiscal practices.

Some schools have tried to shame Illinois into paying by posting signs announcing how much the state owes. The website IllinoisIsBroke.com details the state's financial mess. Associations hold rallies and write letters to the editor.

$6 billion in unpaid bills
The state still remains months behind.

Illinois is on track to end the current fiscal year with about $6 billion in unpaid bills. Budget proposals for the coming year — when the state faces a $13 billion deficit — assume the same thing will happen again.

The state owes money for all kinds of services provided in its name, such as medical care for the needy, home care for the elderly and disabled and day care for the working poor.

State government promises to reimburse all those organizations for at least part of their costs. When the state doesn't pay its bills, they're stuck trying to figure out how to make ends meet.

Most have spent their reserves and cut corners wherever they can, laying off employees, cutting back hours, requiring workers to take furloughs.

Recovery Resources, a substance-abuse treatment center in Quincy, is waiting for $200,000 from the state, which provides about two-thirds of the center's annual budget.

The center has cut 10 jobs over the past two years, said executive director Ron Howell. It shut down its services for adolescent addicts. People who call for help now wait three to four weeks for an appointment.

'This has numbed us'"The situation, for us, has been almost normalized, and that's the scary part," Howell said. "If I'm not screaming on the edge of self-destruction, it's because this has numbed us."

Many agencies have borrowed money to keep the doors open, but service providers say that's getting harder to do — banks are more reluctant to lend money on a promise that the state will pay up someday.

"We have had members whose banks have told them it is the creditworthiness of the state of Illinois that is their primary concern," said Janet Stover, executive director of the Illinois Association of Rehabilitation Facilities.

State leaders have no plan to catch up on the bills anytime soon, not with a $13 billion deficit to tackle. The Pew Center on the States said last year that in percentage terms, Illinois' deficit is nearly as big as the gap in California, the gold standard for states in crisis.

Call for tax increaseDemocratic Gov. Pat Quinn has called for an income tax increase, but any money from that would be allocated to other areas, not paying routine bills. Republicans want to tackle the deficit through spending cuts, which would also mean letting old bills go unpaid.

It's likely that no dramatic movement in either direction will take place until after the November elections.

Illinois government owes about $2.5 million to Sparc, a Springfield organization for people with developmental disabilities, said chief executive officer Carlissa Puckett.

Sparc has borrowed up to $1.1 million through a line of credit. Turning away clients would be the last resort, she said.

Puckett sounds matter-of-fact as she discusses scrimping on paper and pencils. "Why cry if nobody is going to listen to you?" Puckett said. "We're going to keep our head up and figure out how to make it work."

Copyright 2010 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37136518/ns/us_news-life/

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THE PAINTED PIGS THURSDAY MORNING THOUGHTS

WOW....THE PIG RECEIVED A TON OF MAIL ON GAP.V TODAY. SO THE PIG THOUGHT MAYBE WE SHOULD FOCUS A BIT ON IT ALONG WITH THE USUAL PICKS OF THE DAY. ITS BEEN A LONG TIME SINCE THE PIG HAS SEEN A MANIA SUCH AS THIS.

FOR THOSE NOT UP TO SPEED, THE COMPANY IS PHARMAGAP, A JUNIOR CANCER RESEARCHER. ON MONDAY THEY ANNOUNCED THAT WITHIN DAYS, ANOTHER NEWS RELEASE WOULD BE ISSUED AS TO SOME TEST RESULTS ON ONE OF THEIR EXPERIMENTAL DRUGS. THERES A TON OF INFORMATION AVAILABLE ON SEDAR, IN THE BIOTECH AREA OF THE NET AND ON THE VARIOUS WEBSITES OUT THERE. THE RUMOUR MILL IS GOING BANANAS TOO. SO THE PIG MADE A CALL TODAY (PIGS CAN USE A PHONE ? - CAN'T THEY ?) TO A CONTACT WHO UNDERSTANDS THIS BIOTECH STUFF MORE THAN HE. FROM THE WHOLE CONVERSATION.....AND....THE ONE COMMENT (THAT WAS ALSO MENTIONED ON SOME OF THE FORUMS OUT THERE) THAT STANDS OUT IS......... THE FACT THAT THE COMPANY SENT THE RESULTS BACK FOR A SECOND TIME TO CONFIRM THE DATA THEY HAD RECEIVED ON THE INITIAL TESTS. THE PIGS CONTACT SAID THAT USUALLY THE "ONLY" TIME THAT THESE RESULTS ARE RE-EXPENSED TO BE RETESTED IS WHEN THE RESULTS ARE EXTRAORDINARILY GOODN AND ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATION IS REQUIRED. POOR OR AVERAGE RESULTS ARE NOT RETESTED UNLESS THERE IS A FLAW OR ABNORMALITY/ANOMALY IN THE TEST RESULTS/APPARATUS OR TESTING MATRIX. SO THE PIG EXPECTS THE ANNOUNCEMENT TO BE A POSITIVE ONE.

AS FOR THE THE ISSUES RELATED TO THE TRADING OF IT. THERE INVOLVES TIME, MONEY, SENTIMENT, AND ECONOMICS AS INGREDIENTS TO BE ACCOUNTED FOR. IF YOUR IN ALREADY, HOLD FOR THE NEWS AND ANY MOVE BEFOREHAND. IF YOUR NOT IN AND THINKING OF GETTING IN  THEN YOU CAN EXPECT A BIT MORE OF A RUN UP INTO NEWS, AND POSSIBLY A DECENT TADE WITHIN. ONE THING.....THE PIG NOTICED THAT THE MARKET MAKERS DID THERE LARGE BEST TO KEEP A LID ON ANY GAINS ON THE STOCK TODAY. IF THE MANIA CONTINUES, THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT PROPOSITION TO CONTINUE. THE PIG LOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SIDEWAYS DAY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME SCRAMBLING ON FRIDAY TO GET SOME IN ADVANCE OF NEXT WEEK. WHICH WILL NUDGE IT UPWARDS A TAD MORE. ALL KINDS OF RUMOURS AND PREDICTIONS OUT THERE, BUT THE CHART TELLS ALL..........AND ITS GOOD......

ON WITH THE SHOW....

MAP.V.....OUR SCANNER IS AN AMAZING DEVICE. JUST WHEN YOU THINK YOU HAVE IT CORNERED AND FIGURED OUT, IT THROWS US A NEW CURVE. BIG SCANNER OF THE NIGHT HERE. HUGE MOMENTUM SHIFT IN MOST VECTORS RAN ITS NUMBERS TO THE TOP OF THE CHARTS TONIGHT. A BIT THIN IN THE LIQUIDITY DEPARTMENT, THE PIG SAYS ITS EARLY BUT COULD BE A LOOKER...........

GGY.V...SECOND BIG CHOP OF THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE A STRONG ACCUMULATION PERIOD IS GOING TO BE FOLLOWED BY DECENT LIQUIDITY IMPROVEMENTS. IF SO, AND LIQUIDITY DOES RETURN, THIS COULD HAVE DOUBLE WRITTEN ALL OVER IT.

GPO.V...ANOTHER TURNAROUND STORY ? ....MAYBE.....THE NUMBERS SAY A DRAMTIC CHANGE IS ABOUT TO OCCUR HERE. BIG NUMBERS IN DISTRIBUTION, MOVING AVERAGES AND SENTIMENT HAVE THE PIG WONDERING WHATS THIS PIGLET UP TO AND/OR GOING UP TO. WATCH LIST MATERIAL, LIQUIDITY THERE AND THE PIG IS IN....

Bloomberg

Hong Kong Stocks Gain on Commodity Speculation; Tencent Jumps

May 13, 2010, 2:59 AM EDT



May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong stocks advanced for a second day after Tencent Holdings Ltd. reported a surge in earnings, while resource-linked shares gained on speculation commodity prices will rise.Tencent, China’s largest Internet company by market value, rose 4.2 percent and was the biggest contributor to the gain in the Hang Seng Index. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, jumped 2.5 percent and PetroChina Co., the country’s biggest oil company, climbed 2.3 percent. China Shenhua Energy Co., a unit of the country’s largest coal producer, advanced 2.3 percent.






The Hang Seng Index advanced 1.4 percent to 20,494.05 as of 2:56 p.m. in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks the so-called H shares of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies, gained 2.4 percent to 11,791.65.“Because of the increasing expectations for inflation, people are looking to commodities as a hedge,” said Michiya Tomita, a Hong Kong-based fund manager for Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which manages more than $64 billion. “Shares have gotten cheaper after the recent slump.”






The Hang Seng Index has fallen 7.7 percent from three-month high on April 9 as Standard & Poor’s cut its credit ratings on Spain and Portugal, and China intensified steps to cool its property market. Stocks in the gauge trade at an average of 13.5 times estimated earnings, the second-lowest level among the benchmarks for Asia’s major stock markets after South Korea, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Tencent jumped 4.2 percent to HK$157.70, set for its biggest gain since February 22. First-quarter net income soared 72 percent on higher revenue from online games and advertising, the company said yesterday.






Commodity Shares


Sinopec gained 2.5 percent to HK$6.13, while PetroChina climbed 2.3 percent to HK$8.97. China Shenhua advanced 2.3 percent to HK$31.80. Jiangxi Copper Ltd., the biggest producer of the metal in China, jumped 4.3 percent to HK$15.58.






China’s statistics bureau said on May 11 that consumer prices rose 2.8 percent in April year-on-year, the fastest pace in 18 months. Oil prices, which increased 30 percent in the year through yesterday, were little changed today.
Esprit Holdings Ltd., a clothier that gets 84 percent of its revenue in Europe, fell 1.5 percent to HK$53, the biggest loser on the Hang Seng Index, even as concern eased that European nations’ mounting debt will derail the global recovery.






Europe Pledges

“Companies in the upstream industry, such as oil and coal, are better positioned to cope with possible inflation” than businesses closer to consumers, said Mitsubishi UFJ’s Tomita. “They can pass on higher commodity prices to their customers and keep their margin.”






Yesterday, Portugal’s 10-year bonds attracted more demand in a sale than at previous auctions, while Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said the country will cut public wages this year. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, who took office on May 11, pledged an emergency budget within 50 days to narrow the nation’s shortfall.Futures on the benchmark Hang Seng Index advanced 0.9 percent. All but three stocks rose on the 43-company gauge.






--Editor: Nick Gentle, John McCluskey.








Potash to Benefit Long-Term from World Food Shortage







May 12, 2010 @ 6:35 pm In Feature Articles, Potash Articles






By Leia Michele Toovey- Exclusive to Potash Investing News [1]






[2]Potash prices have tracked the boom and bust in the financial markets over the past two years as investors rushed into the agricultural stocks, and then later abandoned them. The underlying structure of the potash market is changing to reflect the new world economy, but one thing will stay the same: people need to eat. The long-term fundamentals of the potash market are supported by increasing populations around the world, and decreasing arable land. In the near-term, the industry is banking on pent-up demand from farmer’s who last year held back on potash use, speculating on a decline in fertilizer costs while suffering from low grain prices.






For the future, the world’s population growth will be centered in developing countries, where crowded conditions and limited arable land will put extra pressure on the local resources. India, China, and Brazil are new world leaders in terms of the future potash market. During 2009, China was one of the first countries to see a decline in potash consumption on the back of record high prices in 2008. India [3], on the other hand, continued to purchase potash, making it the largest consumer in 2009. The country’s potash purchases were virtually unaffected by the financial crisis as a result of a government subsidy on fertilizers. India is completely reliant on imports, and the country has purchased record amounts of the crop nutrient throughout the economic crisis.






Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan [4] (NYSE: POT [5]), the world’s largest fertilizer producer, is expecting global potash shipments of about 50 million tonnes in 2010. Mosaic Co [6] (NYSE: MOS [7]) is anticipating that global potash shipments will range from 47 million to 50 million tonnes this year. German potash miner K+S [8] (ETR: SDF [9]) sales volume outlook is a little more conservative, Chief Executive Norbert Steiner, known for playing it safe, said on Tuesday the group should sell slightly more than 6.5 million tonnes of potash products this year, up from previous guidance of just under 6 million tonnes. K+S now sees global industry sales of the plant nutrient reaching 45 million to 50 million tonnes, compared with a previous estimate of just 45 million.






The sector will get an unexpected boost from Canada, as a mild spring has led the country to plant a record crop of nutrient needy canola [10]. In Canada, the world’s number six wheat producer and top canola exporter, warm April weather and timely rains make a rebound in fertilizer demand more likely, officials say. “Because most of the country is out of the gate planting crops earlier, there’s general optimism that this is the season to make your investments and, therefore, drive a stronger yield.” Farmers intend to plant a record 16.9 million acres of canola this spring, according to Statistics Canada. However, many traders and analysts think that area will be even bigger. Canola is a large user of nitrogen, but also requires more phosphate and potash than wheat.






Russia’s anti-monopoly agency (FAS) said last month it would support proposals to impose an 8.5 percent export duty [11] on potash as a result of rising pricing on the domestic market Russian potash miner Uralkali’s president Denis Morozov sais such a tariff would seriously affect his company’s ability to compete in the global market “All in all, introducing a tariff would, of course, be a serious blow to our competitiveness on the global market, and it will have negative reverberations not only on the attractiveness of investing in our sector, but in the country as a whole.” Morozov also rejected the suggestion that the tariff would boost domestic sales since they account for only 5-6 percent of total production by Uralkali and its rivals.The FAS added that a final decision would be taken by a commission of first deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov.






Company News






K+S has increased its expectations for potash sales in 2010, as the company revealed that it got off to a stronger start than anticipated. The fertilizer company lifted its outlook to 50 million tonnes, up from its previous expectations of 45 million tonnes, noting that brisk sales to wholesalers reflected demand from farmers rather than restocking. “Demand for fertilizers, and in particular for potash fertilizers, should increase significantly,” the group said.






With help from Assistant Editor Vivien Diniz










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Article printed from Potash Investing News: http://potashinvestingnews.com

THE PAINTED PIGS WEDNESDAY MORNING WONDERS

THE PIG HAD QUITE A DAY. FIRST OFF, THE SCANNER SOFTWARE WENT DOWN 30 MINS BEFORE MARKET OPEN. HE GOT THAT BACK UP AND THEN THE PIGS INTERNET CONNECTION MYSTERIOUSLY DISSAPPEARED, THEN REAPPEARED. MUST HAVE BEEN A FULL MOON OR SOMETHING. NICE DAY IN THE MARKETS TODAY WITH SOME REAL HIGH VOLUME/PRICE MOVES. ONE WE WILL FEATURE TONIGHT, JUMPED ON A HEADS UP NEWS RELEASE OF SOME TEST RESULTS PENDING. NORMALLY THE PIG WOULD HAVE SAID THAT WE MISSE THE BOAT ON IT, BUT THIS THING SEEMS TO HAVE SOME SERIOUS MOMO BEHIND IT. COULD BE ANOTHER BIG DAY WEDNESDAY.

ON WITH THE SHOW....

GAP.V...WELL .....WHAT CAN THE PIG SAY. UNFORTUNATELY THE SCANNER PICKED UP ON IT A TAD TOO LATE. BUT NOT TO WORRY AS THE SCANNER DID A COMPLETE TOP TO BOTTOM SCAN THIS EVENING, IT REVEALED SOMETHING. OTHER THAN THE USUAL ASSESSMENTS, THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME MAJOR MOMO LEFT IN THIS TRADE. DESPITE AND IN ADDITION TOO, THE HUGE RUMOUR BASE OUT THERE, THE PIG THINKS THIS MAY BE A GOOD SHORT TERM TRADE FOR CLOSE TO A DOUBLE. IF THE NEWS THATS COMING IS ANY INDICATION (VOLUME TELLS US WHAT IT IS - GOOD OR BAD- GOOD !) THIS PIGLET MAY GO STRATOSPHERIC. AS LONG AS LIQUIDITY AND NEWS IS THERE, ITS GOING TO BE A GREAT TRADE.

RLL.V...BIG SCAN OF THE NIGHT. SENTIMENT, MOVING AVERAGES, AND DISTRIBUTION VECTORS ALL TURNING UP AND MAKING REVERSALS. NOT SURE OF THE STORY, BUT LOOKS LIKE AFTER SOME STRONG ACCUMULATION, THIS CHOICE CHOP MAY BE READY TO HIT THE GRILL AND FRY UP SOME PROFITS. THATS WHAT THE SCANNER THINKS ANYWAY......WE WATCH......IF IT MOVES WE COULD MOVE WITH IT....

THE PIGS "GREAT" READ OF THE WEEK....

SOURCE: http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26529784

Subject: Oil Spill Insights from a Retired Manager of an Offshore Underwater Service Company

Date: Tue, 11 May 2010 00:05:28 +0000

From:


To:


There is every indication that the Blowout Preventer (BOP) was activated and at least partially worked. There is a good probability that the “leak” is inside the BOP. As the oil leaks through the BOP, it then finds its way through the damaged riser and drill pipe, where it will exit from any open end or damaged area. Therefore trying to repair the leaks in the riser does not decrease the flow, but it can reduce the number of places where oil must be captured--which is why they capped the end of the leaking drill pipe. If a company tried to stop all the leaks coming from the riser, it would probably be like trying to repair a rotten garden hose. Every time the company stopped one leak, another one would appear. The task is to try to reduce the leaks to one, or to a couple in the same area, so the containment dome can be put over them and the oil recovered while waiting for the relief wells to "kill" the well.


Every deepwater work class Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) carries sector scan sonar. Sonar can pick up oil leaks that the naked eye cannot see. The picture of oil bubbles painted on a sonar screen looks like fireworks going off.There was an ROV survey of the BOP and riser within hours after the rig sank. At that time, there was no indication of any oil leakage from the BOP, and everyone breathed an extremely large, and extremely premature, sigh of relief. Estimates made about leakage are primarily done from aerial surveys and satellite photos These are notoriously inaccurate, as is clearly stated in the USCG manual on reporting oil spills. The gravity and thickness of the oil, temperature, weather, currents, time, weathering of the oil and other factors all have a major impact on the size of a slick from a given amount of oil. For example, if you are on a lake in very still water and pour a gallon--not a barrel, a gallon--of gasoline over the side, in a matter of minutes you can have a slick covering a square mile. If you want to try this, pick a cool day as on a warm day the gasoline will evaporate before the slick finishes forming. Also, the Coast Guard would be most unhappy if it knew you were attempting this experiment.


If you do the same with heavy crude similar to what was involved in the Exxon Valdez spill, it will probably take a few hundred barrels to cover that same square mile. Over a long enough time period, though, the type of oil involved in the Exxon Valdez spill will end up covering an area many times larger, and will take months to dissipate in the absence of heavy weather. The sweet crude involved in this spill is somewhere in between.It was sometime during the night after the sinking that oil leaks started appearing from buckles and holes in the riser. This was stated to be about 1,000 barrels per day. I would read that to mean the leak was between 250 and 3,000 barrels per day (bpd). And a 5,000 bpd leak is probably between 2,000 and 10,000 bpd. Until there is some way to measure the flow--like running it through a pipeline or into a tank--it is impossible to have any accurate measurement of the leakage.


Factoid: If you assume that there is over 5,000 psi of downhole pressure at the BOP--and everything I have heard indicates it is probably substantially higher than that--then a 1/4 inch diameter hole is large enough to “leak” 5,000 barrels a day. That “leak” would probably cut off your arm if you passed it in front of it.


There is almost certainly sand in the oil. As that sand passes the leaking portion of the BOP, it acts as an extremely high pressure sand blaster, eroding the area around the leak and enlarging the hole. So there is a perfectly rational explanation why the leak would escalate from 1,000 bpd to 5,000 bpd to whatever it is now. Nobody was lying about the volume or covering up. The leak was, and is, getting worse.How much is 1,000 bpd? It works out to 30 gallons per minute, about the output from 3 garden hoses running wide open, or about enough to fill a smallish backyard swimming pool in 24 hours.


Weather


I’m not an oil spill expert, so I won’t address the clean up much except to mention the effect weather has on it.For actually recovering the oil, calm weather is the best. It only takes about 3 or 4 foot waves to greatly impede skimming operations and render inflatable booms ineffective.Unfortunately, the first week of the spill had enough bad weather that recovery operations were slowed and actually stopped for a few days. This week things have been much better, and a lot of oil, but certainly not all, has been recovered before it reached land. The most effective spill cleanup is a violent storm. Mother Nature is much more successful than man at taking care of herself. In Alaska, we found areas prone to heavy storms were essentially clean after one winter, while protected bays and inlets still have oil deposits more than 20 years later.
A number of years ago, a small tanker with a full load of fuel broke up on the Scottish coast during a North Sea winter storm. Heroic efforts by the British Coast Guard and the salvage tug crew saved most of the crew members, but the tanker was completely destroyed, and all the cargo spilled. There was a great fear of massive environmental consequences. But after the storm abated, there was almost no sign of the oil. The power of the storm had effectively dispersed all the oil and cleaned the rock beaches and cliffs.

Obviously the answer is to recover the oil before it reaches land, but a large storm that pushed the oil out to sea and broke it up would be beneficial. That is unlikely to happen at this time of year. It is much more likely any storm would push the oil onshore and would not be violent enough to disperse it.






Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs)


The ROV videos available on YouTube and other sites have been edited or cropped to remove some of the company information and data that is normally visible on the screen. Also, the picture quality is severely degraded from what the operators (BP and all the others) are seeing. But they do give a bit of insight as to what the pilots are seeing and the quality of visibility. So far the ones I’ve seen do not show much detail about the leaks, except for the end of a piece of drill pipe which has been capped.
Incidentally, BP will almost certainly be watching all the ROV video in real time and high definition in their war room in Houston, surrounded by people from the MMS and the USCG.Twenty years ago a typical ROV spent about as much time on deck being repaired as it did in the water. Today anything less than about 98% to 99% “uptime” is considered substandard. I would be surprised if the ROVs come to the surface except to change tool packages, or if the vessel has to leave location. At that depth, it takes about 3 hours to make a round trip from the work site to the deck and back down.
All the ROVs onsite are considered large work class ROVs. They are at least 150 and often over 200 horsepower. They have multiple thrusters that give them accurate positional control in three dimensions plus pitch and yaw. They carry two strong manipulator arms, color sector scan sonar, several high definition color video cameras, and an incredible multiplexed data system. They have jet pumps that can move vast quantities of mud, wire rope cutters, grinders and cutting systems. Besides the ROVs, BP has access to numerous tool packages that can repair pipelines, clean platform members, etc.All the deepwater BOP stacks and other equipment are specially designed to interface with ROVs as they operate WAY past the depth any diver can go.There are some reasonably good short videos of ROVs at www.oceaneering.com. Go the section on ROVs.


The “Dome”


Let's talk about the dome a little. It would appear from the photos that the dome is designed to be large enough to encase the BOP. It has mud mats 16 feet off the bottom, so obviously the idea is to let it sink into the mud which will stabilize the dome and keep it in place. The dome should act as a primary oil/water separator and minimize the amount of water going up the drill string. But even better, if I understand the plan correctly, the leak will probably be above the oil/water interface (water will not entirely fill the dome), which means if the dome system is working smoothly, the oil leaking from the riser will never come in contact with the water before it heads up the drill string.The dome has to be open to the sea water near the bottom, so the pressure will equalize. If the dome were to seal tightly to the seabed, any negative pressure created by the oil rising in the drill string would suck the surrounding mud sea bed right up into the drill string (this is the principal behind suction anchors for drill rigs), and possibly collapse the containment vessel. I assume the way they will control the system will to be to monitor the level of the oil/water interface inside the dome and throttle the flow at top of the drill string to keep the oil/water interface at a set level.It is to be connected to the Discoverer Enterprise with a 6-7/8” drill string. Based on some rough estimates I made, if a person assumes the specific gravity of the oil is 0.89, the specific gravity of sea water is 1.026, the depth is 5,000 feet (actually this is of little importance in calculating the maximum flow), and a freeboard of 33 feet to reach the drill ship deck piping, it should be possible to get about 24,000 bpd on the ship using the natural buoyancy of the oil alone. Most of my numbers, especially the specific gravity of the oil, are conservative, so the maximum throughput could be greater, maybe much greater.


If the drill string is filled with oil, the static pressure is entirely dependent on the specific gravity of the oil and the actual water depth. Roughly, if the specific gravity is 0.80, then the pressure at the water surface would be about 500 psi; if the specific gravity of the oil is 0.90, the pressure would be just under 300 psi.In real life any entrained gas will make a major difference. If the drill string was entirely filled with gas, the static pressure at the surface would be over 2,200 psi. And as soon as you start mixed flow, you get into undefined territory unless you know the exact percentage of gas mixed in the oil.Entrained gas in the leaking oil will greatly change the flow dynamics, as the gas will expand approximately 150 times going up the drill string and act as a giant airlift. The problem then won’t be getting the oil up the drill string; it will be throttling back the flow onboard the drillship. Luckily, a deepwater drillship will have the proper equipment to handle this. The expanding gas also has a substantial cooling effect, enough to freeze the water entrained in the stream. So the design of the drill string has been modified to include a warm water jacket and a methanol (antifreeze) injection system.They have a potentially dangerous situation separating the oil, gas and water, but since the Discoverer Enterprise has processing equipment on board they should be able to handle that safely. The Enterprise also has dual draw works and drill floor, so they are equipped to handle a second drill string to another dome if needed.


The Politics


This is obviously a disaster. It is quite possible that a human error or series of errors, coupled with possible equipment failure, are to blame.Does BP have culpability because of trying to move too fast? At over $500 a minute, they certainly have the incentive to move fast. We don’t know - yet. Is Transocean to blame for some sort of negligence in not properly monitoring the mud return or some other aspect of cementing process? We don’t know - yet. Was Halliburton’s cement job faulty? We don’t know - yet. Did Cameron International’s BOP fail due to manufacturing or design fault? We don’t know - yet.Is a combination of one or more of the above? Quite possibly, but we don’t know - yet. There are unsubstantiated reports that the kick registered over 30,000 psi. If the BOP stack saw that kind of pressure, it could be a important factor, both in determining what happened and how to prevent it from happening again.For those who are appalled that BP had no contingency plans in case of a spill, perhaps you think the skimmer vessels, the miles and miles of inflatable boom, and the couple hundred trained oil spill control personnel that you see on TV just materialized out of thin air. In fact, they have been on standby for a couple decades. They train, work on small spills, and prepare for disaster. As Rockman says: think of them as a fire department, paid for by the oil companies, under requirements of the US government.For those who are appalled by the lack of government response, consider that the US Coast Guard was underway in minutes after the blow out, and their spill response personnel (as well as the teams and equipment from the oil industry) were already onsite, standing by, before the rig sank. For a week after the initial incident, from the blowout April 20 until April 28, things weren't going well. The BOP was still leaking, and the weather was slowing recovery operations, but it is fair to say that the incident was reasonably "under control". There was no need for Obama to get directly involved, mobilize the Dept of Defense, etc.


On April 29, everything started falling apart--a true worst case scenario. That morning, it was obvious the leakage from the BOP had increased dramatically. Even worse, the weather changed and strong offshore winds start moving the oil directly toward some of the most sensitive barrier islands in Louisiana. Not only did the wind change direction, but by evening, it also increased to the point it effectively shut down all skimming and recovery operations and most boom deployments.The media, which had had only superficial coverage up to this point, got heavily involved and disseminated a great deal of technical information that was just plain incorrect.
There is a certainly an expectation that someone may be to blame for the uncontrolled blow out with its loss of life, and potential for extreme environmental and economic damage. But, it is my opinion, with some understanding of the complexities and technical and operational challenges involved, that both the oil industry and the government operational people have responded to the incident quickly and professionally. I wish I could say the same for the media, the politicians and the bloggers.The only operation after the blow out that I might question was the decision to keep pumping water into the rig. I wonder whether it might have been better to let it float, assuming it didn’t sink due to a hole in a pontoon, and let the oil burn. But with the rig's engines and thrusters dead, the only thing holding it in position was the riser, so the potential for it to further damage the BOP probably played into that decision. It is always easy to "Monday morning quarterback," especially if a person doesn’t understand the technical or operational problems. Fortunately, some of the best and most experienced people in the world are working this problem.


BP has stated they will pay for the cleanup and environmental damage (as required by law), and will pay any legitimate claims for economic damage. This is a reasonable requirement. During the Exxon Valdez disaster, we saw numerous outlandish claims from “fishermen” who couldn’t tell you the difference between the bow and the stern and “landowners” and “tourist industry people” who had never been to Alaska until after the spill.There is a lot of press about a $75 million cap on BP’s liability. This has been taken out of context, as it does not apply to the cleanup or environmental damage--there BP’s liability is unlimited. The $75 million is in reference to economic damage, and BP has stated they will not hide behind that limit. Time will tell, but for now I am taking them at their word. I’m sure this will require some effort on the part of people filing claims. For instance, if you are a charter boat owner or fisherman, I expect BP will require you to submit business records proving you are really in that business, and substantiate the amount of business you had before and after the event. It is fair and reasonable for BP to protect themselves from scams, just as it is fair and reasonable that those who have been economically damaged by this event be given realistic compensation.I have a much greater problem understanding why the 200+ lawyers currently meeting to decide how to split up the pie should be entitled to the hundreds of millions of dollars in fees they will eventually receive. We are lucky that this happened to one of the very few companies in the world that has the financial resources to pay the billions of dollars this will cost. This spill is in some ways similar to the Exxon Valdez spill, where Exxon, despite their overwhelming arrogance, did pay all the costs of the cleanup, even while they fought paying many of the economic damage claims I considered valid and tried to avoid all of the punitive damages.


If either spill had happened to a foreign tanker firm or an independent oil company, the taxpayers would have ended up paying for the entire cleanup bill. The people economically affected would have been out of luck, and the companies involved would have already declared bankruptcy.