ON WITH THE SHOW....
OLR.V...SOME GREAT SCANS TONIGHT, THE TOP THREE TOO CLOSE TO CALL.......HERES ONE OF THEM. THE PIG FAVORS ACCUMULATION AS YOU KNOW, SOME INTERSTING CHANGES TO THE MA'S AND TO MOMENTUM SIGNALS ON THIS PIGLET. THE PIG NEVER REALLY PAYS ATTENTION TO ANY STORY ATTACHED AND TRIES TO FOCUS ON THE NUMBERS. OCCASIONALLY HE WILL MENTION A SNIPPET OR TWO IF IT COMES HIS WAY. NOTHING ON THIS FOR A STORYLINE, JUST SOME GREAT NUMBERS.
GDX.V...TURNAROUND SEEMS TO BE THE THEME OF THE DAY. A PREVIOUS PIG PICK ON THE 29TH MARCH WHEN IT APPEARED TO BE GETTING READY FOR A LAUNCH. STILL UNDER ACCUMULATION AND A DROP OFF IN LIQUIDITY (HENCE THE IMPORTANCE OF LIQUIDITY) ITS BEEN SCANNING WELL SINCE THEN AND JUST MOVED BACK INTO THE TOP 5. SOME GREAT NUMBERS AND A TURN FOR THE BETTER IT SEEMS. LIQUIDITY RETURNS, THE PIG SAYS UP SHE GOES.
CJC.V...CAN YOU SAY UPSIDE ? THE PIG SAYS THIS WAS ANOTHER IN TONIGHTS SCANS THAT HAD THE BIG NUMBERS. IT APPEARS AN IMPATIENT PUBLIC SOLD IT OFF AND NOW SOMEONE KNOWS SOMETHING. NUMBERS ALL AROUND GOOD,. ESPECIALLY DISTRIBUTION. THE PIG SAYS ITS ONE TO WATCH, WITH LIQUIDITY AND MAYBE SOME DECENT NEWS, A DOUBLE IN ORDER.
THE PIG SPECIAL SITUATIONS REPORT.........
YLL.V...THE PIG BOUGHT A FEW TODAY......LOOKS LIKE A RUN MAY BE IMMINENT. CHART LOOKS GOOD, JUST WAITING FOR SOME PP SHARES TO BE CHEWED THROUGH.
AXI. V ...IRON ORE PLAY. TRADING AT A FRACTION OF THE ACTUAL PROPERTIES VALUE.
AAA.V...A PIG FAVORITE. EXPECTING RESULTS ON SOME HOLES FROM THEIR POTASH PLAY.
NCM.V...ANOTHER POTENTIAL BREAKOUT CANDIDATE.THE CHART LOOKS EXPLOSIVE AND SOME NEWS WILL MAKE IT GO.
OPW.V....LOOKS TO BE READY TO GO. ONE OF SIX HOLES IN AND ONE EVERY WEEK TILL COMPLETION.
Commodity prices to remain high, says IMF report
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/commodity-prices-to-remain-high-says-imf-report/393060/
Rajesh Bhayani / Mumbai April 27, 2010, 0:12 IST
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast higher commodity prices in the wake of revival in global demand, led by emerging markets. This is true for metals, crude oil and agri commodities. In all three segments, prices are expected to gradually move up.Crude oil prices, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report, released last week, would depend on producers’ readiness to tap their spare capacity amidst increasing demand as economic recovery expands.Commodity prices, especially resource commodities, have been on an upswing. In the current calendar year, iron ore and nickel prices are up over 40 per cent, coal 10 per cent and steel 22-26 per cent. Crude oil and petrochemicals are also up about 10 per cent since January. Within the emerging markets, China’s imports of commodities continues to be high.
“In March this year, China’s imports of copper, oil and coal hit their second highest levels ever. The level of platinum imports beat its previous all-time high by a considerable margin. There has also been healthy rebound in imports of agricultural commodities like soybean and cotton in China,” according to Barclays.
GAINING MOMENTUM
Commodity 4-Jan-10 23-Apr-10 % chg
Nickel 18855.00 26800.00 42.14
Iron Ore-China 135.00 189.50 40.37
Steel HR Coil 549.00 696.00 26.78
Steel CR Coil 661.00 809.00 22.39
Coal fob-South Africa 84.45 93.50 10.72
London Silver ($/ounce) 16.89 18.33 8.53
Brent crude ($/bbl) 80.30 86.18 7.32
London Gold ($/ounce) 1097.32 1157.60 5.49
Copper 7464.00 7660.00 2.63
Aluminium 2225.50 2265.50 1.80
Lead 2451.50 2253.50 -8.08
Zinc 2575.00 2355.50 -8.52
Source: Bloomberg ($/tonne)
The IMF report said apart from the demand for commodities from emerging nations, investment inflows into commodity-related assets rose sharply during 2009, reflecting the continued relative attractiveness of this asset class. “According to estimates by market participants, commodity-related assets under management reached $257 billion at the end of 2009, only slightly below their all-time peak in 2008,” said the report.
“Upward price pressures from a further strengthening of demand will continue as global growth accelerates,” said the report. “Such pressures, however, will likely be moderated by high spare capacity and supply responses to the price rebound.”Data from the US commodity futures regulator, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), also suggest that investors and hedgers anticipate future price increases to be gradual and see little probability of another commodity price spike. Some upside price risks remain, particularly if the global recovery continues to be more buoyant than expected. Other risk factors include heightened geopolitical tensions, major supply disruptions, abrupt increases in desired inventory stocks and an unexpected depreciation of the US dollar. Over the medium term, commodity prices are projected to remain high by historical standards. “Growing commodities prices reflect the strength in economies and growth. The good thing in such a scenario is that as long as there is demand from high-growth economies, companies will be able to pass on the incremental cost due to raw material price hikes to user industry and consumers. Some inflation would be a given as a cost of growth,” said Kalpana Jain, Senior Director, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Private Ltd.
Barclays Capital said in its report that most countries’ policy makers see ‘growing signs of companies passing on higher commodity prices to ultimate consumers’. This shows confidence to pass on the increase and some inflation seems tolerable.Going by this thinking, Barclays said, “We do not expect major shifts in language from the Fed and ECB (meaning no further tightening) at their forthcoming meetings, but monetary authorities in Asia and South America are likely to continue tightening gradually.” It concludes that the rising business confidence across regions and synchronised economic recovery would keep commodity prices stronger.
According to the IMF, ‘with global demand growth in agriculture commodities likely to remain high, this suggests that food commodity markets may remain relatively tight and that, in the absence of continued unanticipated increases in supply, the risk to real food prices remains tilted toward the upside’.
The moderating factor in emerging market demand will be tightening of monetary policy by the respective central banks.
Where Will the World’s Leading Commodity Markets Be Tomorrow?
EWI’s chief commodity analyst reveals why time is of the essence.
By Nico Isaac
Mon, 26 Apr 2010 15:30:00 ET
Fundamental analysis of market behavior suggests a linear, "straight-line," relationship between the news and markets: Factor “X” causes market “Y” to move in direction “Z.” In reality, however, there are more switchbacks along the mainstream financial road than an Alpine ski run. Take, for instance, the following news reel of fresh back-to-back commodity-related posts: “Corn: Very Weak Basis For Rally On Weak Export Demand” -- Versus -- “Corn Outlook Up: Solid Demand”
“Wheat’s fundamental storyline continues to look bearish because of large supplies.”-- Versus -- “Wheat Rises To 7-Week High. Charts look great and funds are buying.” “Sugar Review: Closes at one-year low as analysts continue to downgrade the extent of world supply deficit.” -- Versus -- “Sugar Rises Most In Week. From a supply and demand perspective, we are historically in a tight market.” “Cocoa: Specs Push to 11-week high on Demand Hopes” -- Versus -- “Cocoa Falls On Speculation Demand Will Dwindle.”
“Crude Oil Loses Ground as traders feared strong economic data may push the Federal Reserve closer toward eventually raising interest rates.” -- Versus -- “Oil Advances on Economic Recovery.” How do you get a strong foothold In the world constantly changing fundamental ground?
Answer: You don't.
Hence, the alternative: The clear and objective terrain of technical methods, fortified by Elliott wave analysis. For this, the April 23 Daily Futures Junctures’ “Weekly Wrap-up” is the one-stop source. There, EWI’s chief commodity analyst and long-time Futures Junctures Service editor Jeffrey Kennedy presents in-depth commentary and labeled price charts on these top market contenders:
Coffee: Jeffrey reveals whether the recent advance has the signature of a bear-market countertrend correction or a new bull market. The candlestick price chart shows a “spinning top” bar formation, a classic “igniter” of change.
Cocoa: The price rise of late has been sharp. Jeffery’s candlestick price chart shows you whether the strong advance has been confirmed by equally strong volume. Also, the RSI (relative strength indicator) has just surpassed a prior extreme of the last seven months. All in all, the puzzle pieces form a “very exciting picture” for this week.
Grains Complex: Wheat, corn, and soybeans are “at the point where” major moves should be taking hold. Jeffrey even identifies a possible time window for this event and critical levels that need to give way to solidify his overall Elliott wave count.
Lean Hogs' “wave patterns are very exciting.” And for good reason: A diagonal triangle has unfolded clear as day. Elliotticians know this pattern to precede dramatic moves. In sum: “April and May will be pivotal months” that could launch a trend that lasts well into next year.
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