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Wednesday, July 21, 2010

THE PAINTED PIGS WEDNESDAY MORNING WHOPPERS

THE PIG IS LATE TONIGHT. HE SPENT SOME TIME ON THE PHONE WITH A COUPLE OF OILFIELD PEOPLE TRYING TO GET HIS FAT HEAD AND CURLY TAIL AROUND THIS 6 BILLION BARREL PROJECTED DISCOVERY BY ANGLO (ACG.V) IN ALBERTA. THEY TELL ME THE NUMBERS COULD BE LESS ON THE RECOVERABLE SIDE BUT MORE ON THE TOTAL ACREAGE SIDE. THERES MUCH TO BE KNOWN YET ON IT. BUT THE NUMBERS THEY WERE THROWING AT THE PIG WERE OFF THE SCALE !!

NOW THE PIG IS TO WARN YOU OUT THERE THAT THIS WILL BE A VOLATILE TRADER NO MATTER WHAT. SPECULATION RAMPANT AND OTHERWISE COULD GET OUT OF HAND SO BE COOL WITH YOUR HEAD. 

IF YOU GOT IN TODAY, THERE'S A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THIS COULD RUN INTO THE MULTIPLE DOLLARS OVER THE COMING DAYS AND WEEKS, SO MAKE SURE IF YOU ARE IN OR PLAN ON GETTING IN, TAKE SOME OFF THE TABLE AS YOUR PROFIT INCREASES. ITS THE PRUDENT THING TO DO.


ON WITH THE SHOW.............






































































































ACG.V...6 BILLION BARRELS......NUFF SAID....TRADE WITH CARE...THE PIG'S BEEN TOLDTHIS COULD BE MULTIPLE DOLLARS SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. BE CAREFUL, BE PATIENT AND BE REWARDED.....FOR THOSE HOLDING LONGER TERM, BE AWARE THAT NOTHING GOES STRAIGHT UP.

































































AML.V.....BUSTIN' A GROOVE OR JUST A MOVE  ? ONE OF THE THREE HIGH SCANNER SON THE NIGHT. SOMETHINGS ON TO IT AND THE PIG FIGURES THERE SOME UPSIDE YET.......LIQUIDITY THE THEME....IF ITS THERE YOU CAN BE TOO...IF ITS NOT....YOU MAY STUCK IN A GROOVE....
































































PGC.V.....PLUTO OR BLUTO ?...THE SECOND OF THREE HIGH SCANNERS ON THE DAY....ACCUMULATION, NET CAPITAL AND SENTIMENTS ALL RUNNING HIGH HERE......THE PIG WANTS TO SEE MORE LIQUIDITY....OTHERWISE IT COULD BE STUPIDITY.....WATCH AND LEARN....JUMP IF VOLUME JUMPS...












































































NRS.V..A PIG PICK FROM JUNE 23 AND A BIG SCANNER TONIGHT.....OBVIOUS BY THE CHART SOMETHING IS BREAKING, RIGHT ALONG WITH ALL THE TRENDS....TO THE UPSIDE....FOLLOW THE LIQUIDITY AND THE SMART MONEY TRAIL TO PROFITABILITY.........







Anglo Cdn's Nordegg at 6.47 billion barrels of PIIP

2010-07-20 11:11 ET - News Release
Shares issued 115,255,705
ACG Close 2010-07-19 C$ 0.45



Mr. James Ehret reports

ANGLO CANADIAN OIL CORP. PROVIDES NORDEGG RESOURCE UPDATE BEST ESTIMATE OF 6.47 BILLION BARRELS OF PETROLEUM INITIALLY IN PLACE

AngloCanadian Oil Corp. has obtained an independent resource study inrespect of its 172,000-acre Nordegg Member oil prospect in west-centralAlberta. This resource evaluation (the "Report") was prepared by AJMPetroleum Consultants ("AJM"), an independent qualified resourceevaluator, with an effective date of June 30, 2010 and complies withCOGE Handbook standards and National Instrument 51-101 entitledStandards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities as adopted by theCanadian Securities Regulators.

Probabilistic analysis was usedin the preparation of this volumetric resource estimate on Anglo'slands in the "Nordegg Member". The Report documents the results ofAJM's independent evaluation with the following table summarizing thetotal un-risked Discovered Petroleum Initially-in-Place ("DPIIP")volumes for the four areas studied, including a best estimate of over6.47 billion barrels of Petroleum Initially in Place as follows:








July 20, 2010

Why it's harder to get a U.S. mortgage if you're pregnant

By Michael Babad
Globe and Mail Update

Lenders cast wary eye on parental leave. Plus, what keeps David Rosenberg up at night. And, why Air Canada shares are surging

These are stories Report on Business is following today. Get the top business stories through the day on BlackBerry or iPhone by bookmarking our mobile-friendly webpage [http://m.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/?service=mobile].
U.S. lenders cast wary eye on parental leave
Maternity and paternity leave is proving to be something of an issue for U.S. consumers looking for a mortgage. The New York Times reports today that lenders are looking more closely at people wanting mortgages, and whose incomes have taken a hit during parental leave. That includes even parents planning on returning to work within weeks, the newspaper said. "Now that lenders have become more conservative, they are requiring new parents to jump through more hoops to prove their income will be enough to cover the mortgage," it added.
Part of this dates back to new measures earlier this year. Though the major mortgage companies that buy most of the mortgages from lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, haven't changed their qualifications, the "system of checks and balances" has become more stringent. Officials of Fannie Mae and the Federal Housing Administration said guidelines had not changed, and there's nothing preventing a mortgage approval if income is and will be stable. Brokers, though, said many lenders are looking at that "through an increasingly conservative lens."
  • Read the New York Times article [http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/20/your-money/mortgages/20mortgage.html?ref=business]

Bank of Canada hikes rates
The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark overnight rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 0.75 per cent today but painted a somewhat gloomier outlook and cut its forecast for economic growth. Here's why the central bank did what it did this morning:
"The global economic recovery is proceeding but is not yet self-sustaining. Greater emphasis on balance sheet repair by households, banks, and governments in a number of advanced economies is expected to temper the pace of global growth relative to the bank's outlook in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). While the policy response to the European sovereign debt crisis has reduced the risk of an adverse outcome and increased the prospect of sustainable long term growth, it is expected to slow the global recovery over the projection horizon. In the United States, private demand is picking up but remains uneven."
The central bank said economic activity is unfolding largely as it expected, driven by the government and consumer spending. But, it said, the housing sector is "declining markedly from high levels," and business investment is being held back.
  • Carney hikes rates, but cuts outlook [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/mark-carney-hikes-rates-but-cuts-outlook/article1645785]
  • Rob Carrick: Control your debts, central bank says [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/control-your-debts-central-bank-tells-canadians/article1645853]
  • Earlier discussion: Analysis and reaction [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/instant-analysis-reaction-to-rate-decision/article1645666]


What troubles David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg, the chief economist of Gluskin Sheff + Associates, issued another stern warning today on government debt levels. Mr. Rosenberg noted that debt-to-GDP ratios of 80 per cent or more are "a new dynamic and a game changer" in Europe and the U.S. For all the countries in the OECD, he added in a research note, general government debt as a share of GDP will hit a record 104 per cent next year, compared to 73 per cent when the U.S. recession began.
"The bottom line is that all levels of society, and across most countries in the industrialized world, have far too much debt and far too much debt-servicing costs in relation to income," he wrote. "... The problem of excessive debt leverage got worse in the aftermath of the financial crisis, not better. This is what keeps me up at night - kicking the can down the road in terms of addressing the global debt problem will only end up making the situation worse. Governments seem to believe that the solution to a debt deleveraging cycle is to create even more debt. But delaying the inevitable process of mean-reverting debt and debt-service ratios back to historical norms will be even more painful."

Goldman Sachs earnings plunge
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. GS-N today cited a "more difficult" market climate as it posted an 82-per-cent drop in second-quarter profit. The Wall Street giant, stung by Britain's tax on bank bonuses and the cost of its recent settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, earned $613-million (U.S.) or 78 cents a share, down from $3.4-billion or $4.93. "The market environment became more difficult during the second quarter and, as a result, client activity across our businesses declined," chief executive officer Lloyd Blankfein said in a statement.
Michael Farr of Farr, Miller & Washington LLC told Bloomberg News before the earnings were released that "the clouds over the financial industry remain thick."
The Goldman results, falling shy on revenue, sent U.S. stock futures down even further than they already were.
Before the earnings release, BMO Nesbitt Burns noted some alarm bells in the financial services sector: "Investors will eye Wells Fargo's results closely on Wednesday. A number of banks have already reported a reduction in loan loss provisions, suggesting U.S. household finances are slowly improving, but the revenue outlook remains worrisome. Credit Suisse's results are worth watching on Thursday (one day before the European bank stress-test results are published), as Europe's slow-mo recovery continues to undermine bank earnings on the continent."
One of the more interesting bits in the Goldman results was that Britain's tax on bank bonuses cost the bank some $600-million. Excluding the cost of the tax and costs associated with the SEC settlement, profit was $2.75 a share.

Air Canada shares surge
Shares of Air Canada AC.A-T surged today after the airline announced plans to refinance $900-million (U.S.) of debt and provided a better-than-expected outlook. The Montreal-based carrier said it plans a private offering of $900-million in senior secured notes due in 2015, and will use the proceeds to repay all its secured term $700-million credit facility from last July. It also expects its system capacity for the year to increase by between 6 and 7.5 per cent rather than the previously projected 4 to 6 per cent unveiled in its first-quarter release.
  • Air Canada soars on refinancing plan [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/air-canada-soars-on-refinancing-plan/article1646025]

U.S. housing sinks
The U.S. housing construction market continues to slump, prompting economists to warn of a threatened "double dip" in the sector unless job prospects in the United States improve quickly. The U.S. Commerce Department said today that housing starts fell 5 per cent in June to their lowest since October. Part of this is due to the expiry of a government tax incentive. Starts are now down 19 per cent since the credit expired in April, and sit almost 6 per cent below where they were a year ago. "Despite record low mortgage rates, housing it at risk of a double dip unless job growth strengthens soon," said BMO Nesbitt Burns senior economist Sal Guatieri.
Paul Dales, U.S. economist for Capital Economics in Toronto, said, however, that a 2.1 per cent monthly increase in building permits in June, which point ahead, mark the first rise in three months and suggest housing starts may have bottomed out. "Nonetheless, with high unemployment and tight credit likely to keep demand subdued and more foreclosures set to add to the already high number of unsold homes, homebuilding activity is going to remain weak for a long time," he said.

Bombardier strikes deals at air show
Bombardier Inc. BBD.B-T today struck several deals for business jets valued at more than $700-million (U.S.). The Montreal-based aerospace company made the announcement today, The Globe and Mail's Greg Keenan reports from the Farnborough International Air Show. The largest deal is with VistaJet, which ordered four Global Express and two Challenger aircraft. Steve Ridolfi, president of Bombardier's business aircraft unit, said the past couple of years have been tough in that sector but the market is beginning to strengthen.
  • Bombardier hits $700-million in deals [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/bombardier-hits-700-million-in-deals/article1645650]

Montreal port dispute heads for mediation
The labour dispute between the Port of Montreal and its longshoremen is headed to a federal mediator. The Maritime Employers Association, which represents shippers and other groups at the port, and the union representing some 900 longshoremen, will meet with a mediator Thursday and Friday. The employers locked out the union yesterday morning.
  • Effects felt from Port of Montreal lockout [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/effects-felt-from-port-of-montreal-lockout/article1644616]
  • Mediation set for Montreal port lockout [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/mediation-set-for-montreal-port-lockout/article1645961]

Oil sands companies winners in U.S. restrictions
Companies operating in Alberta's oil sands are doing well by investors in the wake of the ban on new drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. Suncor Energy Inc. SU-T and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. CNQ-T, in particular, stand out as big winners, Bloomberg News reports today. Canadian energy stocks, it says, now have the highest premium since 2005, as the TSX energy index trades for 32.1 times reported profit from the past year. "It's going to be many months before people figure that offshore drilling in the U.S. is going to be something you can take a bet on," Donald Coxe, an adviser to BMO Nesbitt Burns, told the news agency. "For those looking for resources, the oil sands are the best place to go in North America."

From today's Report on Business
  • Conrad Black granted bail [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/conrad-black-granted-bail/article1645182]
  • China now world's top consumer of energy [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/outpacing-us-china-now-the-worlds-largest-gorger-of-energy/article1645406]
  • Onex, CPPIB deal fuels U.K. debate [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/onex-cppib-deal-fuels-uk-debate/article1644473]
  • How a hot cocoa play left trader holding the bag [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/how-a-hot-cocoa-play-left-trader-holding-the-bag/article1645322]
  • Canadian companies spending big on share buybacks [http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/canadian-companies-spending-big-on-share-buybacks/article1645356]




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30 Years of experience in the markets, including some time as a broker.