THUS THE TRICKLE DOWN EFFECT TO US PIGS OUT THERE WHO PLAY THE PENNY MARKETS. THE PIG SAYS, ALWAYS REMEMBR THAT WHAT YOU READ IN YOUR NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL NEWSPAPER, HEAR ON YOUR NATIONAL MEDIA AND GET THROUGH THE INTERNET, IS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO EFFECT YOU AND YOUR INVESTMENTS. CERTAINLY, IF YOU HAVE INTERNATIONAL OR MULTI-NATIONAL HOLDINGS, THEN YES, YOU COULD BE AFFECTED. THE PIGS POINT IS, USE PATIENCE, AND HAVE UNDERSTANDING, AND AVOID EMOTIONS LIKE GREED, AND RATIONALLY THINK YOUR STRATEGIES OUT, YOU WILL PROSPER !
ON WITH THE SHOW....
DUN.V...SOME LARGE TURNAROUND NUMBERS FOR A REGULAR MEMBER TO THE TOP 25 SCANS. LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS ONE HAS EYES FOR THE TOP. MORE LIQUIDITY, AND SOME STRONGER MOMENTUM AND SHE WILL FLY LIKE A PIG. WATCH IT CLOSE.
RMD.V...ACCUMULATION TO THE MAX, AND SOME DECENT TURNAROUND NUMBERS IN MOMENTUM AND DISTRIBUTION HAVE THE PIG THINKING ITS ANOTHER CHOICE CHOP LOOKING TO MOVE...UP. AGAIN, MORE LIQUIDITY AND SOME DECENT NEWS AND THIS COULD BE A DUBLE CANDIDATE (OR MORE) IN THE SHORT TERM.
PGC.V...IS ANOTHER BREAKOUT CANDIDIATE. SOME GOOD NUMBERS IN THE TURNAROUND AREA, MOMENTUM AND DISTRIBUTION SECTORS UP HIGH AND SOME ENCOURAGING NUMBERS IN THE NET CAPITAL INFLOW AREA. AGAIN, NOT TO RATTLE ON LIKE A BROKEN RECORD BUT WE NEED SOME LIQUIDITY FOR IT TO MOVE. THE EYES ARE ON IT.
SD.V....WE ARE A BIT LATE FOR THE MOVE ON THIS PIGGY, BUT THE NUMBERS SAY THERE IS MORE TO COME. THIS PIGLET SHOWS UP REGULARLY BUT ALWAYS FAILS TO MAKE THE TOP FIVE OR TEN BECAUSE OF LACK OF "OOMPH". WORTH WATCHING TO SEE IF IT BREAKS FREE.
May 3, 2010
Economy at a Glance
Commodity prices are on the march again
ALEX CARRICK
Chief Economist, CanaData
Nickel prices have been more restrained. They are only 37% of the way back to their previous high. However, since the price did fall so low in the recession, they are +160.4% above their trough level recorded in December 2008, the same month as the low point for copper prices.
Aluminum demand comes from the aerospace industry, motor vehicles, construction and beverage packaging. Some of these are on the upswing in North America, but it is more likely that demand growth is livelier overseas. In any event, aluminum prices are +75.7% higher than in February 2009 and they have made their way nearly 60% back from their trough position.
The number one headline commodity, oil, is now priced more than double (+116.9%) its level of a year ago. It is at about the halfway mark on its return path from trough (February 2009) to previous peak (July 2008). Coal has made almost one-third (29%) of the journey from trough (March 2009) to previous peak and is up 58.6% versus its bottomed-out position.
Even some livestock agricultural prices have been on the move. Cattle are +19.4% versus December 2009 and hogs – earlier devastated by bad publicity from swine flu and new country-of-origin labeling in the U.S. – are now +56.2% compared with August 2009. Hogs prices have received support from government programs that encouraged culling herd sizes.
While the timeframes are different for almost all of these commodities, it is still informative to consider that the average percentage change for the 10 product categories set out in this analysis, trough to current levels, is +79%. Commodity prices are on the march again. This has obvious implications for overall prices, since commodities are the building blocks of almost everything. Also, it is good news for Canada’s Western provinces, which are somewhat more resource rich, or at least more resource dependent, than the central and eastern parts of the nation.
Five other commodities warrant some commentary. Gold and silver prices remain at or near record highs, wheat and uranium prices are restrained and natural gas is deeply depressed.
Commodity prices reflect demand (versus available supply) and help drive expansion plans. Prices shown are monthly averages.
Data source: TD Bank Financial Group. Aluminum (London Metal Exchange, closing cash price); Coal (Australian thermal); Oil (West Texas Intermediate, domestic spot market). Charts: Reed Construction Data – CanaData.
COMMODITIES MAY 4,
2010 China Slowdown Pounds Copper
Copper extended a monthlong slide on Monday in a stark reminder of just how central Chinese demand is to the fate of the red metal. Copper for May delivery fell 1.8% to $3.2785 per pound at the Comex division of New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since Feb. 26.
While commodities are generally holding up well amid signs of a strengthening U.S. recovery, copper—considered a leading indicator of global economic activity—has been in decline. The big drag on copper is a further sign that demand from China may be easing.
Since hitting a 21-month high on April 5, the metal has fallen 10%, while the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index was unchanged.
Over the weekend, the Chinese government lifted reserve requirements for banks in another attempt to tame liquidity and inflationary pressure. Higher reserve ratios could mean tighter credit for manufacturers and construction companies, in turn damping copper buyers' demand.
On Friday, the International Copper Study Group issued its latest forecast, saying Chinese demand for copper could drop as much as 13% in 2010, a sharp reversal from a 38% increase in 2009.
About one-third of the world's refined copper is consumed in China, helping the metal triple in price since collapsing during 2008's credit crunch. But the ICSG said some of copper China bought last year went into stockpiling, instead of actual use, which is likely to cap this year's demand.
Copper's demand growth is "reshifting" from Asia to developed countries, said Catherine Virga, senior base metals analyst at CPM Group, a commodity research firm in New York.
Copper consumption in the U.S., European Union and Japan is expected to grow about 7% in 2010, the ICSG said. But that won't help make up for the drop in China's demand, with global copper demand projected to fall 1.5% in 2010 and production to exceed consumption by 578,000 metric tons, up from 195,000 tons in 2009.
Copper's recent weakness could herald "more moderate economic growth going forward," Ms. Virga said.
With China's appetite waning, analysts are worried that copper prices are vulnerable to an even deeper correction in the short term. Wayne Atwell, managing director and head of research with natural-resource investment bank Casimir Capital in New York, believes copper could head as low as $2.90 over the next couple of months.
Adding more downward pressure is the traditional summer doldrums in copper markets. Trade slows because construction companies in warm climates have already bought the copper they need for summer projects.
But any pullback will be temporary, said Patricia Mohr, vice president and commodity-market specialist at Toronto-based Scotiabank, who sees copper averaging at least $3.30 this year.
This longer term support comes as many believe world-wide copper demand in coming years will outstrip new mine capability. The ICSG expects copper demand to grow 5.1% in 2011 as the rate of economic recovery in major copper consuming regions accelerates.
"The sentiment is just so good for copper," Mr. Mohr said.
Write to Carolyn Cui at carolyn.cui@wsj.com and Matt Whittaker at matt.whittaker@dowjones.com
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