THE PAINTED PIG'S WEDNESDAY MORNING WONDERS

FROM A FRIEND OF THE PIG'S........


Went for coffee today....

after market close, where I read the business page and did a little cogitation...

it seems to me that the US national debt is now too vast to ever get under control. This means, that eventually there will be a default. But, before that happens, there will be a great dilution of the US dollar, in futile attempts to pay off the debt

This means that PM's will soar in value, and eventually stocks in PM's will follow along. Basic commodities will also increase in value substantially, because they are mostly all priced in US dollars.

So, now I find that almost all stocks are undervalued, and have bought quite a bit during this downturn in SP's.

'NUFF SAID..........

APA.V...RE SCANNED AGAIN TONIGHT WITH STRONG NUMBERS. THE PIG GOT A FEW AT .14 AND WILL SIT AND WAIT. RUMOURS OF A PROJECTED MINERAL RESOURCE 43-101 COMING AND BEING VERY STRONG IN VALUES PERSIST, AS WELL AS PENDING RESULTS. EITHER WAY, ANOTHER GREAT SCAN TONIGHT.

CWY.V...BIG SCANNER OF THE NIGHT AND THE ONLY ONE WORTHY OF PUBLICATION. SEEMS EVERYBODY LEFT FOR THE LAKE EARLY THIS WEEK. NET CAPITAL INFLOW, DISTRIBUTION AND MOVING AVERAGES ALL HIGH ON THIS PIGGY....CAN YOU SAY "ACCUMULATION"...?? SOMEBODY THINKS ITS THE RIGHT THING TO DO.....

THE PIGS FASCINATING WEBSITE OF THE WEEK.....

http://www.usdebtclock.org/



Time to Shut Down the Federal Reserve?

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100006729/ti...

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jun 28 2010 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: June 28, 2010 at 4:10 pm

Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,

Monday must now be the new “Friday” when it comes to gold. Those of you who have been watching the gold price action over the last decade know what I am referring to. For those of you who are a bit newer to the gold game, Fridays, particularly after a payrolls report, have typically been the day on which gold was taken down by the bullion bank crowd to mess with the weekly chart and the technical picture.




Last Monday saw gold put in a horrendous bearish downside reversal day which the bulls managed to negate the rest of the week by a sheer gritty determination not to run. Today (another Monday) we have an exact repeat of the same bullion bank tactic that they employed 7 days ago; to wit, a takedown after price took out last Friday’s session high while gold mining stocks were also moving sharply higher. The result – an exact repeat of last Monday technically – another bearish outside reversal day on the daily chart. This coming on the heels of a brand new record high in Dollar terms at the London PM Fix ($1,261).

It is quite evident that the perma-bears at the Comex are determined to cap gold at $1,260. No one hits bids with the intensity that I saw this morning unless they are trying to take price lower. The reason is obvious – a closing push through $1262 and gold goes immediately to $1,280 – $1,285 garnering all the more headlines and casting more doubt upon the integrity of world’s current monetary system, which is under extreme duress. What the bullion banks are attempting to do is to form a double top on the daily price chart – it really is that simple.

Some are pointing to the stronger dollar as the culprit behind the weakness in gold, but that is denying the obvious and grasping for an explanation. Bonds are shooting sharply higher today and even the Yen is stronger as once again risk is back in focus and investors are moving to safe havens. Under such a scenario, the very notion that gold would be sold off as a “risky” asset is laughable for its stupidity.

The fact is gold was sharply higher after the conclusion of the meaningless G20 summit which was nothing but a group of yakking heads talking to hear themselves saying something. Investors rightfully interpreted that as further confirmation that nothing serious was going to be done that would restore confidence towards paper currencies. They then bid the yellow metal higher which held its gains from overnight as it moved into New York trading and even added some. We are then to believe that investors had a sudden change of heart so much so that they immediately became convinced at mid-morning that gold was no longer worthy to be held but instead US paper Treasuries were much more to be desired? Based on what news, what report? Come on already – are there actually people out there who are so damn dense that they believe this nonsense? This is what an orchestrated takedown looks like, pure and simple.

My own view is that this will meet with as much success as the previous Monday’s. Not a thing has changed in regards to the world’s monetary system – nothing. We always have to respect the technical price action because today’s markets are dominated by techies but those same technicals worked in favor of the bulls last week based on the price action Tuesday through Friday last week. They have to repeat their performance once again.

Let’s see how support levels function tomorrow and Wednesday. Chalk up today for the history books and forget about it. What is more important now is whether the bulls will hang tough and refuse to run. If they do not run, bears will be forced to cover as they did last week. As I mentioned in this past weekend’s analysis of the COT report, bears will have to force price down below $1233 on a closing basis to induce long side liquidation. 





THE PIGS CLASSIC READ OF THE WEEK.......

Top Ten Signs it’s a Terrible, Horrible, No-Good, Very Bad Market Day

September 22, 2008 11:38 am marketguy Uncategorized When I was a child, one of my favourite books was “Alexander’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day” by Judith Viorst. Originally published in 1972, the story involves a young boy named Alexander, who is experiencing a heavy dose of Murphy’s Law. Simply, he survives a day in which absolutely everything goes wrong. For example, he wakes up with gum in his hair, trips on his skateboard, and drops his sweater in the sink. His brothers find cool toys in their breakfast cereal, while he finds only breakfast cereal. At school during a counting exercise, he leaves out 16. At lunch, he discovers that his mother has neglected to pack dessert. Shortly thereafter, he has a dental appointment and learns that he has a cavity; then he falls in some mud. Alexander proceeds to spill ink all over the place, miss out on the shoes he wants, and start a fight. As if these weren’t enough, Alexander’s bath was too hot and he loses his marbles down the drain. To cap off the day, he’s forced to wear the dreaded railroad-train pajamas, his pillow is missing, and his night-light burns out. With each indignity, Alexander wondered if life would be better in Australia. However, while lying in his bed, Alexander notes the following: “It has been a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day. My mom says some days are like that. Even in Australia.”

Over the past several weeks, most investors have experienced these terrible, horrible, no good, very bad days, as market indices have plunged and commodity prices have collapsed. I have to admit that I find such days to be quite exciting. I’ve always been interested in crisis and my career is littered with attempts to understand how people react when the shit hits the fan. For example, my first conference presentation involved examining media accounts of the 1987 stock market crash. In another project, I looked at the influence of personality and cognitive variables in explaining how people respond to declines in their portfolios. Before becoming a faculty member, I worked at a 24-hour crisis hotline and trained their counselors how to respond to those who were suicidal and in crisis. You get the idea. I’m endlessly fascinated by terrible, horrible, no good, very bad days.
In terms of the market, I believe such corrections are healthy and necessary. They present an opportunity to remove speculative excess, bring valuations down to more reasonable levels, and often present a wonderful buying opportunity. I try to make the best of such days, even if my portfolio takes a bit of a hit. So as a public service (coupled with my need to drive this into the ground), I now present the top ten signs that you’re in the middle of a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad market day. Remember, I’m not just talking about bad markets days; they also have to be terrible, horrible, and no good…just trying to be clear. Now, on to the signs:
1. Central bank officials and politicians can be heard to utter the meaningless phrase, “the fundamentals of the economy are sound.” The judges will also accept “the economy is fundamentally sound.” I also really enjoy, “we’re monitoring the situation closely.” In other words, “this is bad, we have no idea what’s happening, and we have no idea what to do. When we decide how to proceed, we’ll probably overreact. Please don’t ask any more questions. Thank you.”
Quote of the week #1, from The Comedy Network’s Stephen Colbert: “The fundamentals of our economy are strong. We still exchange currency. We haven’t reverted to a barter system. Although I believe Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch for 2 goats and a bushel of oranges.”
Quote of the week #2, courtesy of PM Stephen Harper: “If a crash were coming, it would have already happened.” This logic would have caused Mr. Spock to cry like an infant before experiencing an aneurysm. Harper is the same man who recently promised tax incentives for new homebuyers. So the financial crisis began by making it too easy for people to obtain houses. How do we solve the problem? By making it easier for people to obtain houses. Got it. As Mark Twain suggested, “If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?”

2. Everything is going down and I mean everything. The stock screens are a sea of red and have me thinking of that scene in The Shining when the elevators at the Overlook Hotel are spewing blood. Did I just write that? Let’s move on. The most fascinating days involve complete, total, unreserved capitulation. Stocks are blowing through their 52-week lows and are doing so with extreme vigor. It’s like the Terminator: It can’t be reasoned with, it can’t be bargained with, and it absolutely will not stop. Even the most bullish of analysts and market watchers are suddenly recommending that everyone stay on the sidelines until the dust settles. With apologies to Norm Peterson of Cheers, it’s a dog-eat-dog market and you’re wearing Milk Bone underwear. If you’re keeping score, this makes three 80s references in one paragraph. As an investor, the day will see you exhibiting a variety of bizarre behaviours, which include but are not limited to the following:

• staring at the computer with your mouth open
• refreshing your stock page like a hungry rat pressing the lever in a Skinner box
• trying to comment on the day and the best you can come up with is, “Holy shit.” Yup…it’s a holy shit market.

3. High trading volumes. It has to be difficult to get on to your brokers website or achieve access by phone. We may even hear about technical glitches and that some systems are having trouble keeping up with the activity. And since I have nothing else to add, did I mention that we’re headed to New York and will be touring the Federal Reserve Bank? Market Gal is thrilled (he noted sarcastically). Thankfully we also have tickets to a Broadway show and Letterman, so that should keep the peace.
4. People you know who usually aren’t interested in the markets start talking with you about the markets. This happens with people at work, buddies on MSN, in emails, etc. For example, the other day, my buddy Ozner in Nepean mentioned the failing of Lehman Brothers. Twenty-four hours before, he wouldn’t have known a Lehman from a Lohan. Friends and family who are interested in the markets call as well, only they call earlier in the day. For me, it’s Bouch in Embrun, Lloyd and Pat in Ottawa, and of course, Market Dad. The phone call usually begins with “geez” or “wow” or something to that effect. Next up is an accounting of how the portfolio is doing and an identification of which stocks are faring the worst. Misery loves company.
5. The newspapers and business web pages are littered with photos of exhausted traders, concerned investors, and gawkers congregating outside the offices of failing firms. The Friday edition of BNNs Squeeze Play included Andrew Bell and Kim Parlee interviewing traders at a downtown Toronto watering hole. The patrons looked as though they’d just finished a 5-day enema.

6. The story of the markets migrates from the business pages to the front pages. It’s the lead story and we are treated to headlines such as “Markets Collapse,” which the editors present in a really big font. You know it’s a really big deal when they bring out the really big fonts. I also appreciate the words “contagion” and “panic” making their inevitable appearance. The Globe and Mail recently offered, “A Day of Reckoning,” which I thought was a nice touch.
My favourite part of the coverage involves placing the day in historical context. For example, “this represents the largest decline in index A since date B.” In order to qualify as a terrible, horrible, no good very bad day, it has to be the worst day in several years. Saying it’s the worst trading day since March doesn’t cut it (unless that day was terrible and horrible)….we have to be making history. We’ve been hearing a lot about American stocks being wiped out. However, did you know that Nortel recently had its worst trading day in 28 years? That’s what I’m talking about. Incidentally, Nortel is trading under $3 and this includes a fairly recent 10-for1 stock consolidation. In other words, if they hadn’t consolidated the stock, it would be trading under 30 cents. Let us mourn the money that has been destroyed.
7. Business television behaves like a dog with a bone. There’s one story and one story only: The market collapse. Networks often dispense with goofy programming features because the day is all about chronicling the crisis. Each guest is there to talk about the market action and each moment brings us wonderful quotes such as this offering from BNN anchor Pat Bolland: “This is a sick market.” Regular programming seems more important than usual and the day is littered with “special editions.” For example, “today on BNN, it’s a special edition of Squeeze Play.” This reminds me of watching TV during my childhood…”this week, on a very special edition of Family Ties, Steven, Elise and the kids rally around Uncle Ned who is coming to terms with alcoholism. Tom Hanks guest stars.”

8. At some point during the day, we are reminded of the losses that could trigger a halt in trading or a, gulp, market close. This is a tough nut to crack, as it takes a 10% decline in the Dow Jones Industrials to initiate a 30-minute to one-hour halt at the NYSE.  A 20% decline prompts a 1-2 hour halt, but if the decline is witnessed after 2pm, the whole place shuts down. A 30% decline closes the market for the day, irrespective of timing. Incidentally, the Russians shut down their exchange three times in the past week (twice for going too low, and once for going too high…perhaps one day it will be just right).
9. The business press starts interviewing the older brokers. Specifically, they are looking for brokers and analysts who traded through the ’87 crash. These archetypal wise old men are simply the best. They’ve seen it all, lived through some rough times, and always have great stories. Such figures provide a calming presence, and their reassuring voices remind us that, given time, the markets rebound. You can’t get this from a 22-year old just out of business school.
10. The attributional search runs into overdrive. When positive things happen in life, we tend not to reflect on what might have led to the good times. However, during bad times, we typically initiate what’s called the attributional search. That is, we attempt to determine the causal factors that led to the event. Basically, we’re asking “why did this happen?” The process is intensified if the event is unexpected. During a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad market day, we often hear that retail investors are driving the panic and that the smart money is staying put or being put in play. The last few days have elevated corporate greed, ignorance, and a lack of regulation to the top of the list of suggested causal factors (John McCain mentioned all three the other day). Given that we’re in the middle of a North American election bonanza, expect the list to grow. I’m still waiting for the religious right to somehow blame lesbianism.
In a related vein, it never ceases to amaze how many market participants claim they saw it coming and took measures to protect their assets. Sure, their top picks on BNN’s Market Call are down 72%, but they claim to have made it out just fine. Sure thing, guys.
So how am I positioning myself to deal with these volatile times? To be honest, I’m doing very little. Sure, my financial and international plays have been on a wild ride. But with a focus on high-quality, dividend-growing value stocks, my portfolio has been less volatile than the indices. So far I’m down 4% on the year and this compares very favourably to the TSX, S&P 500 and the Dow. Let’s just say I’m certainly not losing any sleep over it. Besides, it’s the down markets when my approach really earns its keep. I’m less interested in selecting big winners and more interested in avoiding big losers. There’s a huge difference. Meanwhile, my watch list is long and although the names are getting cheaper by the day I’m still not inclined to put a significant amount of money to work. And for the record, Friday’s 7% advance on the TSX feels about as shaky as Stephane Dion.

The past few days have been adventurous, but I can’t help but think we have more terrible, horrible, no good, very bad days in the near future. And as these days continue to come along, I expect to be a buyer. As Warren Buffett noted, “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
The Market Guy is an Instructor with the Department of Psychology at Carleton University. He’s not a professional advisor. He’s just a guy who loves investing and talking about the markets…so do your homework before making any investment decisions. Basing any financial decision on his column would be really, really stupid and would demonstrate that you need therapy (he teaches psych, so he’d know). In addition to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Spamalot at the Shubert, and Letterman, he’ll also be holding a pilgrimage to Wall Street. He may need to be sedated. Get high on life over at mail@marketguy.ca